luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Eagles at Ravens, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Ravens 24–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 24 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q3, 1:26 left): J. Tucker missed a 53-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 24
Baltimore Ravens 19

December 1, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +47 Eagles lucky · −47 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 5, Ravens win 5.

  1. 1 PHI 38 BAL 14
  2. 2 PHI 40 BAL 23
  3. 3 PHI 34 BAL 23
  4. 4 PHI 27 BAL 20
  5. 5 PHI 27 BAL 24
  6. 6 PHI 13 BAL 15
  7. 7 PHI 20 BAL 26
  8. 8 PHI 19 BAL 30
  9. 9 PHI 16 BAL 31
  10. 10 PHI 9 BAL 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 53% of them, Ravens 47%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+12.6%
Eagles by 9–1614.7%
Eagles by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation5.8%
Ravens by 1–820.2%
Ravens by 9–1613.6%
Ravens by 17+11.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Eagles by 5, without the luck Eagles by 5.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Tucker, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • J. Tucker, 47 yds missed · 79% expected
  • J. Tucker, 53 yds missed · 68% expected
  • J. Elliott, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 8 for 55 yards, Ravens 4 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:30 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +1% BAL +0.6 pts
Q1 13:18 Fair Catch Interference on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 15 yards +1% BAL +1.3 pts
Q1 12:01 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% BAL +2.3 pts
Q1 5:52 Illegal Use of Hands on the Eagles (Nolan Smith), 5 yards 0% BAL +0.8 pts
Q1 4:14 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q1 3:45 False Start on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.8 pts
Q1 1:47 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 5 yards 0% BAL +0.3 pts
Q2 4:20 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards +2% BAL +0.7 pts
Q4 13:42 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Cooper DeJean), 5 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 11:39 False Start on the Ravens (Jalyn Armour-Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.3 pts
Q4 10:57 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Trenton Simpson), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.3 pts
Q4 1:15 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.6 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:01 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3192 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +6% BAL BAL: Field goal
2 Q2 11:08 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% PHI BAL: Punt
3 Q3 12:31 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
4 Q3 10:00 J. Tucker missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 59 of 81 from 45+ before +11% PHI BAL: Missed field goal
5 Q3 8:29 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
6 Q3 3:05 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
7 Q3 1:26 The game turned hereJ. Tucker missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 59 of 82 from 45+ before +16% PHI BAL: Punt
8 Q4 9:52 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Williams (BAL FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kyle Van Noy (BAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • DeVonta Smith (PHI WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • Darius Slay (PHI CB), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 74% · Ravens 26%

Final margin
Eagles by 5
Luck in points
0.8 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 53% · Ravens 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Eagles · Ravens

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