luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Titans at Commanders, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Titans 42–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 67% favorites.

Final

Tennessee Titans 19
Washington Commanders 42

December 1, 2024 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −6

Luck index 0 Commanders about even · 0 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 0, Commanders win 10.

  1. 1 TEN 7 WAS 16
  2. 2 TEN 16 WAS 31
  3. 3 TEN 7 WAS 26
  4. 4 TEN 10 WAS 33
  5. 5 TEN 7 WAS 33
  6. 6 TEN 10 WAS 40
  7. 7 TEN 9 WAS 41
  8. 8 TEN 0 WAS 36
  9. 9 TEN 0 WAS 40
  10. 10 TEN 10 WAS 58

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 0% of them, Commanders 100%. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.0%
Titans by 9–160.0%
Titans by 1–80.0%
Level after regulation0.0%
Commanders by 1–80.3%
Commanders by 9–161.7%
Commanders by 17+98.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 23, without the luck Commanders by 19.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 46 yds missed · 78% expected
  • N. Folk, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • N. Folk, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 52 yds missed · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 12 for 93 yards, Commanders 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:55 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.7 pts
Q1 14:17 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.3 pts
Q1 2:23 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans (James Williams), 10 yards +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q1 0:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders, 15 yards +1% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 14:16 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Amani Hooker), 5 yards +1% WAS +1.1 pts
Q2 12:51 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Arden Key), 5 yards 0% WAS +0.5 pts
Q2 10:59 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Otis Reese), 10 yards 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 10:18 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards 0% WAS +1.5 pts
Q2 9:02 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Michael Davis), 12 yards 0% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 8:17 Face Mask on the Titans (Jerome Baker), 15 yards 0% WAS +1.8 pts
Q2 3:31 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 5 yards 0% TEN +0.7 pts
Q2 2:09 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.4 pts
Q2 2:04 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.3 pts
Q2 1:14 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% WAS +1.5 pts
Q2 0:39 False Start on the Titans (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 14:15 Illegal Blindside Block on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 11 yards 0% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 7:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 8 yards +1% WAS +1.5 pts
Q4 8:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Jeremy Chinn), 15 yards 0% TEN +2.2 pts
Q4 3:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Bobby Wagner), 2 yards 0% TEN +0.3 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:27 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 14% expectedThe Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +4% TEN TEN: Punt
2 Q1 7:48 The Commanders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +3% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:23 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans (James Williams), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 144 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +2% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:42 The Titans fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% WAS TEN: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:02 The Commanders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +2% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q3 8:54 T. Pollard dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 155 catchable balls before this +2% WAS TEN: Field goal
7 Q3 8:45 N. Folk made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +2% WAS TEN: Field goal
8 Q3 6:40 The Commanders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +2% TEN WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Allen (WAS DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (WAS G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (WAS RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 0% · Commanders 100%

Final margin
Commanders by 23
Luck in points
3.7 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 19.3
Replay with same day's form
Titans 0% · Commanders 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Titans · Commanders

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