luckadjusted

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Titans at Commanders, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Titans 42–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 7.4 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 67% favorites.

Final

Tennessee Titans 19
Washington Commanders 42

December 1, 2024 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −6

Luck index 0 Commanders about even · 0 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 0, Commanders win 10.

  1. 1 TEN 16 WAS 23
  2. 2 TEN 20 WAS 33
  3. 3 TEN 16 WAS 34
  4. 4 TEN 6 WAS 27
  5. 5 TEN 17 WAS 41
  6. 6 TEN 13 WAS 40
  7. 7 TEN 0 WAS 30
  8. 8 TEN 7 WAS 41
  9. 9 TEN 7 WAS 45
  10. 10 TEN 0 WAS 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 0% of them, Commanders 100%. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.0%
Titans by 9–160.0%
Titans by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Commanders by 1–80.1%
Commanders by 9–160.5%
Commanders by 17+99.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Commanders by 18.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 46 yds missed · 78% expected
  • N. Folk, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • N. Folk, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 52 yds missed · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:27 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 13% expectedThe Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +2% TEN TEN: Punt
2 Q1 7:48 The Commanders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +3% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:40 The Commanders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +3% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:42 The Titans fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% WAS TEN: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:02 The Commanders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +2% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:28 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +3% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:40 The Commanders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +2% TEN WAS: Touchdown
8 Q3 5:51 T. Pollard dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 156 catchable balls before this +2% WAS TEN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Allen (WAS DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew Wylie (WAS G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (WAS RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 1% · Commanders 99%

Final margin
Commanders by 23
Luck in points
4.8 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 18.2
Replay with same day's form
Titans 0% · Commanders 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Titans · Commanders

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