luckadjusted

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Colts at Patriots, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Patriots 25–24, but the Patriots played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 7.4 points to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Colts were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): J. Slye missed 68-yard field goal, worth 85 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 25
New England Patriots 24

December 1, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Colts −2.5

Luck index +66 Colts very lucky · −66 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 3, Patriots win 7.

  1. 1 IND 30 NE 13
  2. 2 IND 22 NE 14
  3. 3 IND 30 NE 27
  4. 4 IND 12 NE 14
  5. 5 IND 13 NE 17
  6. 6 IND 9 NE 16
  7. 7 IND 10 NE 19
  8. 8 IND 10 NE 21
  9. 9 IND 16 NE 31
  10. 10 IND 10 NE 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 34% of them, Patriots 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+4.0%
Colts by 9–1610.1%
Colts by 1–818.8%
Level after regulation1.9%
Patriots by 1–828.6%
Patriots by 9–1621.1%
Patriots by 17+15.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 4.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 35 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Slye, 31 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Slye, 54 yds made · 57% expected
  • J. Slye, 25 yds missed · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 68 yds missed · 40% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:20 J. Slye missed 25-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +11% IND NE: Turnover
2 Q3 1:01 The Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% IND NE: Touchdown
3 Q4 15:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 23 flags in 4412 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +12% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:56 Illegal Shift on the Patriots (Demario Douglas), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 976 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +15% IND IND: Turnover
5 Q4 1:52 K. Granson dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 74 catchable balls before this +12% NE IND: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:17 The Colts converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +24% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:12 The Colts’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +28% IND –
8 Q4 0:01 J. Slye missed 68-yard field goalKicks · 40% expected for him, 43 of 65 from 45+ before +85% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marte Mapu (NE LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Josh Downs (IND WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tanor Bortolini (IND C), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 17% · Patriots 83%

Final margin
Colts by 1
Luck in points
5.3 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 4.3
Replay with same day's form
Colts 34% · Patriots 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Colts · Patriots

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