luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Colts at Patriots, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Patriots 25–24, but the replays lean toward the Patriots: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Colts were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:12 left): the Colts’ two-point try was good, worth 28 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 25
New England Patriots 24

December 1, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Colts −2.5

Luck index +70 Colts very lucky · −70 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 3, Patriots win 7.

  1. 1 IND 30 NE 14
  2. 2 IND 23 NE 16
  3. 3 IND 13 NE 10
  4. 4 IND 13 NE 15
  5. 5 IND 19 NE 24
  6. 6 IND 10 NE 17
  7. 7 IND 10 NE 20
  8. 8 IND 13 NE 27
  9. 9 IND 14 NE 31
  10. 10 IND 10 NE 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 30% of them, Patriots 70%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+2.7%
Colts by 9–167.2%
Colts by 1–816.6%
Level after regulation4.8%
Patriots by 1–826.4%
Patriots by 9–1622.9%
Patriots by 17+19.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 1, without the luck Patriots by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Slye, 31 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Slye, 54 yds made · 58% expected
  • J. Slye, 25 yds missed · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Slye, 68 yds missed · 12% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 2 for 15 yards, Patriots 7 for 88 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:36 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% IND +2.1 pts
Q1 2:32 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +2% IND +0.7 pts
Q2 10:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Jahlani Tavai), 29 yards +5% IND +2.3 pts
Q2 2:57 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Grover Stewart), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.5 pts
Q2 2:28 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +2% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 0:54 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +1% IND +1.0 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% NE +1.7 pts
Q4 8:56 Illegal Shift on the Patriots (Demario Douglas), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +15% IND +2.3 pts
Q4 1:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Alex Austin), 14 yards +10% IND +1.7 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:20 J. Slye missed a 25-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +11% IND NE: Turnover
2 Q3 1:01 The Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +16% IND NE: Touchdown
3 Q4 15:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 23 flags in 4412 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +12% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:56 Illegal Shift on the Patriots (Demario Douglas), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 976 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +15% IND IND: Turnover
5 Q4 1:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Alex Austin), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 300 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +10% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:17 The Colts converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +18% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:12 The Colts’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +28% IND –
8 Q4 0:01 J. Slye missed a 68-yard field goalKicks · 12% expected for him, 43 of 65 from 45+ before +12% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marte Mapu (NE LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Josh Downs (IND WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tanor Bortolini (IND C), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 38% · Patriots 62%

Final margin
Colts by 1
Luck in points
1.3 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Colts 30% · Patriots 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Colts · Patriots

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