luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Chargers at Falcons, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Falcons 17–13, but the replays lean toward the Falcons: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:49 left): Return touchdown by the Chargers, worth 39 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 17
Atlanta Falcons 13

December 1, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −1

Luck index +60 Chargers very lucky · −60 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 4, Falcons win 6.

  1. 1 LAC 30 ATL 10
  2. 2 LAC 27 ATL 16
  3. 3 LAC 13 ATL 7
  4. 4 LAC 26 ATL 24
  5. 5 LAC 14 ATL 16
  6. 6 LAC 17 ATL 23
  7. 7 LAC 10 ATL 18
  8. 8 LAC 12 ATL 24
  9. 9 LAC 21 ATL 37
  10. 10 LAC 7 ATL 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 40% of them, Falcons 60%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+5.7%
Chargers by 9–1613.9%
Chargers by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Falcons by 1–827.9%
Falcons by 9–1616.7%
Falcons by 17+14.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Chargers by 4, without the luck Chargers by 5.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 35 yds missed · 95% expected
  • C. Dicker, 45 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Dicker, 51 yds made · 77% expected
  • C. Dicker, 34 yds made · 96% expected
  • Y. Koo, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • Y. Koo, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 7 for 33 yards, Falcons 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:27 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Arnold Ebiketie), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +1.1 pts
Q1 5:11 Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Kristian Fulton), 4 yards +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q2 2:48 False Start on the Chargers (Will Dissly), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 11:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Daiyan Henley), 5 yards +2% ATL +0.8 pts
Q3 10:00 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.2 pts
Q3 6:41 False Start on the Chargers, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 5:18 Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Otito Ogbonnia), 5 yards +4% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 6:19 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 5 yards +4% LAC +0.5 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Holding on the Chargers, 5 yards +10% ATL +2.1 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 1:49 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the ChargersSpecial teams +39% LAC ATL: Field goal
2 Q4 14:09 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% ATL LAC: Punt
3 Q4 12:50 The Falcons converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +11% ATL ATL: Turnover
4 Q4 10:58 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +8% LAC ATL: Turnover
5 Q4 10:23 The Falcons converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +10% ATL ATL: Turnover
6 Q4 2:00 Defensive Holding on the Chargers, 5 yardsJudgment calls +10% ATL ATL: Turnover
7 Q4 1:06 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% ATL ATL: Turnover
8 Q4 0:47 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +22% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Hughes (ATL CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cam Hart (LAC CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Simi Fehoko (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 71% · Falcons 29%

Final margin
Chargers by 4
Luck in points
1.2 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 40% · Falcons 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Chargers · Falcons

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