luckadjusted

Week 13 2024 · November 28, 2024

Dolphins at Packers, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Dolphins 30–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.8 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:40 left): the Dolphins fumbled and the Packers recovered, worth 10 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Miami Dolphins 17
Green Bay Packers 30

November 28, 2024 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3.5

Luck index +10 Packers about even · −10 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 16 GB 10
  2. 2 MIA 34 GB 36
  3. 3 MIA 30 GB 34
  4. 4 MIA 17 GB 24
  5. 5 MIA 20 GB 30
  6. 6 MIA 6 GB 20
  7. 7 MIA 14 GB 31
  8. 8 MIA 10 GB 29
  9. 9 MIA 16 GB 41
  10. 10 MIA 14 GB 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 10% of them, Packers 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.4%
Dolphins by 9–162.0%
Dolphins by 1–85.8%
Level after regulation1.8%
Packers by 1–818.4%
Packers by 9–1622.7%
Packers by 17+49.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 7.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. McManus, 46 yds made · 74% expected
  • B. McManus, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. McManus, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:40 The Dolphins fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% GB MIA: Punt
2 Q1 10:57 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 10 flags in 3129 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +4% MIA MIA: Punt
3 Q1 9:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Jonnu Smith), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 3786 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +3% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:30 D. Wicks dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 68 catchable balls before this +4% MIA GB: Touchdown
5 Q1 5:56 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +3% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:25 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:57 The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% MIA MIA: Field goal
8 Q2 0:27 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% GB MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Romeo Doubs (GB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Edgerrin Cooper (GB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kendall Fuller (MIA CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Walker (MIA LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 7% · Packers 93%

Final margin
Packers by 13
Luck in points
5.1 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 10% · Packers 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Dolphins · Packers

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