luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2024 · November 28, 2024

Giants at Cowboys, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 27–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:37 left): Return touchdown by the Cowboys, worth 33 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

New York Giants 20
Dallas Cowboys 27

November 28, 2024 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −4.5

Luck index +30 Cowboys lucky · −30 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 3, Cowboys win 7.

  1. 1 NYG 23 DAL 7
  2. 2 NYG 20 DAL 13
  3. 3 NYG 20 DAL 17
  4. 4 NYG 20 DAL 22
  5. 5 NYG 16 DAL 20
  6. 6 NYG 9 DAL 16
  7. 7 NYG 10 DAL 20
  8. 8 NYG 6 DAL 19
  9. 9 NYG 6 DAL 24
  10. 10 NYG 0 DAL 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 30% of them, Cowboys 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+4.2%
Giants by 9–168.6%
Giants by 1–815.2%
Level after regulation3.8%
Cowboys by 1–824.8%
Cowboys by 9–1621.4%
Cowboys by 17+22.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 7, without the luck Cowboys by 5.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Gano, 46 yds made · 86% expected
  • G. Gano, 47 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 13 for 98 yards, Cowboys 6 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:47 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Kayvon Thibodeaux), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +1.2 pts
Q1 1:37 Face Mask on the Cowboys, 15 yards +4% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 6:27 Running Into the Kicker on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards +2% NYG +0.3 pts
Q2 6:27 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.2 pts
Q2 6:07 False Start on the Cowboys, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG 0.0 pts
Q2 4:31 False Start on the Giants (Daniel Bellinger), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 2:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Luke Schoonmaker), 10 yards +4% NYG +0.6 pts
Q2 2:19 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Kayvon Thibodeaux), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.2 pts
Q2 1:41 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.3 pts
Q2 1:29 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Kayvon Thibodeaux), 15 yards +3% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 0:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys, 4 yards +2% NYG +0.2 pts
Q3 8:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Tyler Nubin), 10 yards +3% DAL +1.9 pts
Q3 5:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 8 yards +2% DAL +2.0 pts
Q3 3:02 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Theo Johnson), 10 yards 0% DAL +0.9 pts
Q4 14:15 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.9 pts
Q4 9:51 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Chris Manhertz), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DAL +3.1 pts
Q4 4:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 14 yards +1% NYG +1.1 pts
Q4 2:47 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% DAL +2.2 pts
Q4 2:18 Defensive Offside on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.3 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:01 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q2 11:44 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 11:37 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +33% DAL NYG: Punt
4 Q2 9:08 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 7:21 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +8% NYG DAL: Punt
6 Q2 3:28 M. Nabers dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 82 catchable balls before this +8% DAL NYG: Field goal
7 Q2 1:24 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +7% DAL DAL: Punt
8 Q3 13:01 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by c.rush · 6.9 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jake Ferguson (DAL TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out · 0.8 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Deonte Banks (NYG CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jermaine Eluemunor (NYG T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 51% · Cowboys 49%

Final margin
Cowboys by 7
Luck in points
1.4 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
Giants 30% · Cowboys 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Giants · Cowboys

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