luckadjusted

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Cardinals at Vikings, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Cardinals 23–22, but the Cardinals played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 1.5 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:40 left): the Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 52 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 22
Minnesota Vikings 23

December 1, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3.5

Luck index +62 Vikings very lucky · −62 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, Vikings win 4.

  1. 1 ARI 23 MIN 0
  2. 2 ARI 41 MIN 24
  3. 3 ARI 23 MIN 10
  4. 4 ARI 17 MIN 7
  5. 5 ARI 33 MIN 28
  6. 6 ARI 17 MIN 14
  7. 7 ARI 24 MIN 26
  8. 8 ARI 24 MIN 30
  9. 9 ARI 23 MIN 35
  10. 10 ARI 3 MIN 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 62% of them, Vikings 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+16.1%
Cardinals by 9–1616.6%
Cardinals by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation3.0%
Vikings by 1–819.5%
Vikings by 9–1611.9%
Vikings by 17+6.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 3.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Romo, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Ryland, 45 yds missed · 78% expected
  • C. Ryland, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Romo, 55 yds made · 67% expected
  • C. Ryland, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Romo, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
  • C. Ryland, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Romo, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Ryland, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:02 C. Ryland made 24-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +14% MIN ARI: Field goal
2 Q3 12:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Fabian Moreau), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 21 flags in 3841 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q4 14:57 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 55% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% MIN ARI: Field goal
4 Q4 9:18 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% ARI ARI: Field goal
5 Q4 3:23 C. Ryland made 23-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +11% MIN ARI: Turnover
6 Q4 2:10 The Vikings converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +22% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:53 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +33% ARI ARI: Turnover
8 Q4 0:40 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 55% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +52% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Will Reichard (MIN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ed Ingram (MIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Oliver (MIN TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Andrew DePaola (MIN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 43% · Vikings 57%

Final margin
Vikings by 1
Luck in points
2.2 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 3.2
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 62% · Vikings 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Cardinals · Vikings

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