luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2024 · December 1, 2024

Cardinals at Vikings, Week 13 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Cardinals 23–22, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:40 left): the Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 36 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 22
Minnesota Vikings 23

December 1, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3.5

Luck index +44 Vikings lucky · −44 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 4, Vikings win 6.

  1. 1 ARI 47 MIN 26
  2. 2 ARI 19 MIN 7
  3. 3 ARI 38 MIN 31
  4. 4 ARI 27 MIN 24
  5. 5 ARI 20 MIN 22
  6. 6 ARI 16 MIN 21
  7. 7 ARI 17 MIN 24
  8. 8 ARI 6 MIN 17
  9. 9 ARI 5 MIN 20
  10. 10 ARI 14 MIN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 44% of them, Vikings 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+7.1%
Cardinals by 9–1614.0%
Cardinals by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation2.7%
Vikings by 1–826.3%
Vikings by 9–1616.8%
Vikings by 17+13.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Vikings by 1, without the luck Vikings by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Romo, 44 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. Ryland, 45 yds missed · 78% expected
  • C. Ryland, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Romo, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • C. Ryland, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Romo, 43 yds missed · 86% expected
  • C. Ryland, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Romo, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Ryland, 23 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 10 for 96 yards, Vikings 3 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:15 False Start on the Cardinals (Tip Reiman), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.6 pts
Q1 0:32 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% MIN +1.8 pts
Q2 12:10 False Start on the Cardinals (Michael Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 10:54 False Start on the Cardinals (Tip Reiman), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.6 pts
Q2 8:29 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +4% MIN +1.5 pts
Q2 0:27 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Jihad Ward), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.5 pts
Q3 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 28 yards +7% MIN +1.3 pts
Q3 12:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Fabian Moreau), 13 yards +9% ARI +2.3 pts
Q3 5:15 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +1% MIN +1.0 pts
Q3 4:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Fabian Moreau), 38 yards +9% ARI +3.7 pts
Q4 4:14 Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 15 yards +4% MIN +1.3 pts
Q4 4:14 False Start on the Cardinals (Tip Reiman), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.6 pts
Q4 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Jalen Thompson), 8 yards +1% MIN +0.6 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:24 The Vikings fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% ARI MIN: Punt
2 Q3 12:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Fabian Moreau), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 21 flags in 3841 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q3 4:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Fabian Moreau), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 21 flags in 3841 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:16 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% ARI MIN: Field goal
5 Q4 9:18 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% ARI ARI: Field goal
6 Q4 2:10 The Vikings converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +21% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:53 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +31% ARI ARI: Turnover
8 Q4 0:40 The Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +36% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Will Reichard (MIN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ed Ingram (MIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Oliver (MIN TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Andrew DePaola (MIN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 29% · Vikings 71%

Final margin
Vikings by 1
Luck in points
3.8 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 44% · Vikings 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2024 games · Cardinals · Vikings

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