2024 season · final
Baltimore Ravens, 2024: game by game
The Ravens went 12–5 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 13.9 wins. Luck cost them 1.9: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.4.
Every game
How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Chiefs | L 20–27 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 2 | vs Raiders | L 23–26 | 84% | −84 |
| Week 3 | @ Cowboys | W 28–25 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 4 | vs Bills | W 35–10 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 5 | @ Bengals | W 41–38 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 6 | vs Commanders | W 30–23 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 7 | @ Buccaneers | W 41–31 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 8 | @ Browns | L 24–29 | 99% | −99 |
| Week 9 | vs Broncos | W 41–10 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 10 | vs Bengals | W 35–34 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 11 | @ Steelers | L 16–18 | 87% | −87 |
| Week 12 | @ Chargers | W 30–23 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 13 | vs Eagles | L 19–24 | 63% | −63 |
| Week 15 | @ Giants | W 35–14 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 16 | vs Steelers | W 34–17 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 17 | @ Texans | W 31–2 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 18 | vs Browns | W 35–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Wild Card | vs Steelers | W 28–14 | 94% | +6 |
| Divisional round | @ Bills | L 25–27 | 46% | −46 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +22.4 | +1.32 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +11.3 | +0.67 |
| Drops | +9.2 | +0.54 |
| Rest | +3.1 | +0.19 |
| Fumble bounces | +1.6 | +0.09 |
| Kicks | −22.1 | −1.30 |
| Judgment calls | −49.7 | −2.92 |