2024 season · final
Baltimore Ravens, 2024: game by game
The Ravens went 12–5 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 14.0 wins. Luck cost them 2.0: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.3.
Every game
How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Chiefs | L 20–27 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 2 | vs Raiders | L 23–26 | 85% | −85 |
| Week 3 | @ Cowboys | W 28–25 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 4 | vs Bills | W 35–10 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 5 | @ Bengals | W 41–38 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 6 | vs Commanders | W 30–23 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 7 | @ Buccaneers | W 41–31 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 8 | @ Browns | L 24–29 | 99% | −99 |
| Week 9 | vs Broncos | W 41–10 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 10 | vs Bengals | W 35–34 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 11 | @ Steelers | L 16–18 | 90% | −90 |
| Week 12 | @ Chargers | W 30–23 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 13 | vs Eagles | L 19–24 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 15 | @ Giants | W 35–14 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 16 | vs Steelers | W 34–17 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 17 | @ Texans | W 31–2 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 18 | vs Browns | W 35–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Wild Card | vs Steelers | W 28–14 | 97% | +3 |
| Divisional round | @ Bills | L 25–27 | 34% | −34 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.34 | +16.8 |
| Drops | +0.22 | +5.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.10 | +11.4 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +3.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.04 | +1.7 |
| Judgment calls | −0.63 | −24.8 |
| Kicks | −0.94 | −23.9 |