luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Ravens?

No, if anything the opposite. Judgment calls have cost the Ravens 1.20 points a game since 2019, the 1st-most of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −1.39 points a game over 8 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Ravens minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262−5.36 32nd104 –
202517+0.23 15th5158 –
202417−2.92 32nd9160 +1.26 (2)
202317−0.90 23rd6861 +1.37 (2)
202217−0.20 19th5455 +0.77 (1)
202117+0.08 15th6261 –
202016−2.32 31st6543 −6.21 (2)
201916−1.95 28th6854 −4.70 (1)

Biggest calls for the Ravens

  1. Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 7 · 70 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (J.R. Sweezy), 4 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 2 · 42 pts of win probability
  3. Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers, 15 yards · 2022 Week 17 · 25 pts of win probability
  4. Face Mask on the Steelers, 15 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 18 · 20 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Camryn Bynum), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 9 · 18 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 6 · 60 pts of win probability
  2. Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Anthony Averett), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 13 · 47 pts of win probability
  3. Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 5 · 29 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 12 · 29 pts of win probability
  5. Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 11 · 25 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Ravens?

No, if anything the opposite. Judgment calls have cost the Ravens 1.20 points a game since 2019, the 1st-most of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: −1.39 points a game over 8 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Baltimore Ravens, every season