2025 NFL season · final · regular season

Referee calls, 2025: who they helped

Judgment calls helped the Steelers most in 2025: +1.74 wins, the calls that went their way minus the ones that didn’t, each weighted by the moment it came. They hurt the Broncos most: −2.38 wins. The Cowboys were flagged the most, 133 times.

Judgment calls are the flags an official has to judge: holding, pass interference, roughing and the like. Each is valued by what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out, so a call in a decided game counts for nothing and one at the turn of a close game for most of a win. Week to week a team’s call luck barely repeats (correlation 0.09), which is what chance looks like. How calls are valued

#	Team	Call luck, wins	Judgment flags against	For	Pre-snap flags against
1	Steelers	+1.74	62	65	39
2	Chargers	+1.29	53	65	51
3	Giants	+1.04	68	86	60
4	Bengals	+1.01	48	62	40
5	Seahawks	+0.78	61	66	39
6	Cowboys	+0.56	80	80	53
7	Jaguars	+0.54	82	69	45
8	Commanders	+0.45	66	73	51
9	Texans	+0.42	76	76	42
10	Rams	+0.37	47	73	28
11	Ravens	+0.36	51	58	48
12	Colts	+0.30	67	64	35
13	Packers	+0.28	63	56	42
14	Patriots	+0.23	63	66	36
15	Raiders	+0.10	63	67	45
16	Vikings	+0.10	58	59	53
17	Falcons	+0.06	56	60	52
18	Cardinals	+0.03	72	56	43
19	Jets	+0.01	64	58	46
20	Panthers	−0.01	56	67	39
21	Buccaneers	−0.12	61	78	34
22	Saints	−0.19	65	69	53
23	Bills	−0.19	72	56	29
24	Titans	−0.39	73	56	56
25	49ers	−0.39	53	64	30
26	Browns	−0.43	59	63	49
27	Bears	−0.75	65	58	55
28	Chiefs	−0.82	80	62	39
29	Dolphins	−0.91	60	57	41
30	Eagles	−1.26	74	55	43
31	Lions	−1.80	60	55	44
32	Broncos	−2.38	81	60	42

Call luck by team

PIT +1.74 1st

LAC +1.29 2nd

NYG +1.04 3rd

CIN +1.01 4th

SEA +0.78 5th

DAL +0.56 6th

JAX +0.54 7th

WAS +0.45 8th

HOU +0.42 9th

LA +0.37 10th

BAL +0.36 11th

IND +0.30 12th

GB +0.28 13th

NE +0.23 14th

LV +0.10 15th

MIN +0.10 16th

ATL +0.06 17th

ARI +0.03 18th

NYJ +0.01 19th

CAR −0.01 20th

TB −0.12 21st

NO −0.19 22nd

BUF −0.19 23rd

TEN −0.39 24th

SF −0.39 25th

CLE −0.43 26th

CHI −0.75 27th

KC −0.82 28th

MIA −0.91 29th

PHI −1.26 30th

DET −1.80 31st

DEN −2.38 32nd

Referee crews

Flags per game in each crew’s games, and how the judgment calls leaned: share of a win a game toward the home team.

Referee	Games	Judgment flags per game	Pre-snap per game	Toward home team
Alex Moore	16	9.8	6.4	+4.2%
Carl Cheffers	17	8.4	5.9	+0.2%
Adrian Hill	15	8.4	5.8	−4.7%
Shawn Hochuli	17	8.7	5.2	−0.6%
Bill Vinovich	17	8.1	5.5	−2.8%
Brad Rogers	16	7.9	5.4	+4.8%
Clete Blakeman	17	7.5	5.3	+3.1%
Ron Torbert	17	6.6	5.7	+0.4%
Clay Martin	17	7.5	4.6	−0.4%
Alex Kemp	18	7.5	4.5	−1.1%
Shawn Smith	17	7.4	4.5	+2.4%
Scott Novak	17	7.0	4.8	−2.2%
Craig Wrolstad	18	6.9	4.7	−1.1%
John Hussey	17	6.1	5.1	−3.1%
Land Clark	16	6.4	4.6	+5.0%
Alan Eck	17	6.5	4.3	+4.9%
Brad Allen	16	5.7	4.4	+2.7%

All referees since 2019 · 2025 luck rankings · Expected wins