2025 NFL season · final · regular season

Expected wins, 2025: what each team’s play was worth

The Eagles won 11 games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.5, the biggest gap in the league, and points scored and allowed put them at 10.0. The Raiders are the other way round: 3 wins from play worth 6.8.

Team	Record	Replay wins	Coin-flip wins	Pythagorean	Betting line	Wins − replay
Seahawks	14–3	12.4	12.7	13.0	10.5	+1.6
Patriots	14–3	12.0	11.6	12.5	10.2	+2.0
Broncos	14–3	10.7	12.9	11.0	10.7	+3.3
Jaguars	13–4	8.6	11.4	11.8	9.1	+4.4
Rams	12–5	13.7	13.3	12.3	11.3	−1.7
Bills	12–5	13.1	12.6	11.2	11.4	−1.1
49ers	12–5	11.8	8.2	10.1	9.3	+0.2
Texans	12–5	8.2	9.8	11.5	9.3	+3.8
Chargers	11–6	10.3	8.5	9.3	9.3	+0.7
Bears	11–6	7.7	9.4	9.1	8.2	+3.3
Eagles	11–6	6.5	10.8	10.0	10.4	+4.5
Steelers	10–7	7.8	7.4	8.8	8.4	+2.2
Packers	9–7–1	12.5	9.0	9.3	10.3	−3.0
Lions	9–8	10.5	11.6	10.0	10.2	−1.5
Vikings	9–8	7.5	6.4	8.8	7.9	+1.5
Ravens	8–9	10.1	10.5	9.1	10.4	−2.1
Colts	8–9	9.8	8.8	9.7	8.8	−1.8
Buccaneers	8–9	8.5	7.0	7.7	9.1	−0.5
Falcons	8–9	7.4	7.7	7.2	8.1	+0.6
Panthers	8–9	6.6	8.7	6.5	6.4	+1.4
Cowboys	7–9–1	8.6	7.8	7.7	8.7	−1.1
Dolphins	7–10	6.7	7.3	6.5	7.1	+0.3
Chiefs	6–11	9.4	10.3	9.5	10.0	−3.4
Bengals	6–11	7.1	5.9	6.8	7.5	−1.1
Saints	6–11	6.9	7.9	6.3	6.5	−0.9
Commanders	5–12	7.8	5.3	6.2	7.2	−2.8
Browns	5–12	4.4	5.2	5.5	6.0	+0.6
Giants	4–13	6.2	5.8	7.1	6.2	−2.2
Raiders	3–14	6.8	4.8	3.4	6.1	−3.8
Cardinals	3–14	6.1	4.6	5.4	6.8	−3.1
Jets	3–14	3.9	4.1	3.9	5.7	−0.9
Titans	3–14	2.4	4.6	3.8	5.0	+0.6

Replay wins: Summed over the season: how often the team wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams actually played.
Coin-flip wins: The same with only kicks, bounces, drops, conversions and calls re-rolled. The number that best predicts the rest of a season: correlation 0.437 against 0.378 for actual wins.
Pythagorean: From points scored and allowed: games × PF^2.37 / (PF^2.37 + PA^2.37).
Betting line: Summed win chances from each game’s closing spread: what the market expected before kickoff.

Luck-adjusted standings

Each division: record on the left, replay wins on the right. A line that falls from left to right belongs to a team whose record ran ahead of its play.

AFC East

NE 14–3

BUF 12–5

MIA 7–10

NYJ 3–14 12.013.16.73.9

RecordReplay wins

AFC North

PIT 10–7

BAL 8–9

CIN 6–11

CLE 5–12 7.810.17.14.4

RecordReplay wins

AFC South

JAX 13–4

HOU 12–5

IND 8–9

TEN 3–14 8.68.29.82.4

RecordReplay wins

AFC West

DEN 14–3

LAC 11–6

KC 6–11

LV 3–14 10.710.39.46.8

RecordReplay wins

NFC East

PHI 11–6

DAL 7–9–1

WAS 5–12

NYG 4–13 6.58.67.86.2

RecordReplay wins

NFC North

CHI 11–6

GB 9–7–1

MIN 9–8

DET 9–8 7.712.57.510.5

RecordReplay wins

NFC South

CAR 8–9

ATL 8–9

TB 8–9

NO 6–11 6.67.48.56.9

RecordReplay wins

NFC West

SEA 14–3

SF 12–5

LA 12–5

ARI 3–14 12.411.813.76.1

RecordReplay wins

Adjust the assumptions

Change how much of each kind of play counts as luck, and every team’s coin-flip wins are recomputed for the whole season.

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 25%Fumble bounces 75%Interceptions 0%Drops 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 100%Pre-snap flags 0%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

Tested on 19,000 lucky breaks: no momentum, so it’s off by default. Why

#	Team	Wins	Coin-flip wins	Luck
1	Rams	12	13.3	−1.3
2	Broncos	14	12.9	+1.1
3	Seahawks	14	12.7	+1.3
4	Bills	12	12.7	−0.7
5	Lions	9	11.6	−2.6
6	Patriots	14	11.6	+2.4
7	Jaguars	13	11.3	+1.7
8	Eagles	11	10.9	+0.1
9	Ravens	8	10.5	−2.5
10	Chiefs	6	10.3	−4.3
11	Texans	12	9.8	+2.2
12	Bears	11	9.5	+1.5
13	Packers	9.5	9.0	+0.5
14	Colts	8	8.9	−0.9
15	Panthers	8	8.7	−0.7
16	Chargers	11	8.5	+2.5
17	49ers	12	8.2	+3.8
18	Saints	6	7.9	−1.9
19	Cowboys	7.5	7.8	−0.3
20	Falcons	8	7.6	+0.4
21	Steelers	10	7.4	+2.6
22	Dolphins	7	7.3	−0.3
23	Buccaneers	8	6.9	+1.1
24	Vikings	9	6.4	+2.6
25	Bengals	6	5.9	+0.1
26	Giants	4	5.8	−1.8
27	Commanders	5	5.3	−0.3
28	Browns	5	5.2	−0.2
29	Raiders	3	4.9	−1.9
30	Titans	3	4.6	−1.6
31	Cardinals	3	4.6	−1.6
32	Jets	3	4.1	−1.1

2025 luck rankings · One-score games · Referee calls · Methodology