2025 NFL season · final · decided by 8 points or fewer

One-score games, 2025

The Eagles went 8–4 in one-score games; replayed with the same day’s form, they win 4.1 of those 12, the most close-game luck in the league. The Chiefs went 1–9, from play worth 5.3 wins. If every one-score game had gone the other way, the Chiefs would lead the league at 14–3.

Close-game records look like clutch and rarely last: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s one-score win rate carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record.

Team	One-score record	Replay wins in those	Close-game luck	Record	If they flipped
Broncos	11–2	7.4 of 13	+3.6	14–3	5–12
49ers	5–1	3.6 of 6	+1.4	12–5	8–9
Chargers	6–2	5.5 of 8	+0.5	11–6	7–10
Patriots	7–3	5.5 of 10	+1.5	14–3	10–7
Steelers	7–3	5.2 of 10	+1.8	10–7	6–11
Panthers	7–3	4.8 of 10	+2.2	8–9	4–13
Eagles	8–4	4.1 of 12	+3.9	11–6	7–10
Jaguars	6–3	3.0 of 9	+3.0	13–4	10–7
Seahawks	6–3	6.1 of 9	−0.1	14–3	11–6
Bears	7–4	4.2 of 11	+2.8	11–6	8–9
Bills	5–3	5.4 of 8	−0.4	12–5	10–7
Texans	7–5	5.5 of 12	+1.5	12–5	10–7
Dolphins	4–3	3.4 of 7	+0.6	7–10	6–11
Cowboys	4–3–1	3.3 of 8	+1.2	7–9–1	6–10–1
Vikings	5–4	3.6 of 9	+1.4	9–8	8–9
Buccaneers	6–6	6.3 of 12	−0.3	8–9	8–9
Falcons	5–5	4.0 of 10	+1.0	8–9	8–9
Packers	4–5–1	7.1 of 10	−2.6	9–7–1	10–6–1
Rams	4–5	6.9 of 9	−2.9	12–5	13–4
Jets	3–5	3.4 of 8	−0.4	3–14	5–12
Bengals	3–5	4.2 of 8	−1.2	6–11	8–9
Saints	3–5	4.2 of 8	−1.2	6–11	8–9
Lions	3–5	4.3 of 8	−1.3	9–8	11–6
Browns	3–6	2.7 of 9	+0.3	5–12	8–9
Colts	3–7	5.0 of 10	−2.0	8–9	12–5
Titans	2–5	1.2 of 7	+0.8	3–14	6–11
Ravens	2–5	4.2 of 7	−2.2	8–9	11–6
Commanders	2–5	3.6 of 7	−1.6	5–12	8–9
Raiders	2–5	4.3 of 7	−2.3	3–14	6–11
Cardinals	2–8	4.9 of 10	−2.9	3–14	9–8
Giants	1–7	2.8 of 8	−1.8	4–13	10–7
Chiefs	1–9	5.3 of 10	−4.3	6–11	14–3