One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Patriots in one-score games

The Patriots are 0–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 7–3 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.2 of those 1. Since 2019: 28–32 in 60 one-score games, 25.9 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Patriots win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.2 0–1

2025 +1.4 7–3

2024 +0.2 3–6

2023 −0.2 4–8

2022 −0.5 4–4

2021 +0.8 3–3

2020 −0.3 3–4

2019 +0.9 4–3

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	0–1	0.2 of 1	−0.2	1–1
2025	7–3	5.6 of 10	+1.4	14–3
2024	3–6	2.8 of 9	+0.2	4–13
2023	4–8	4.2 of 12	−0.2	4–13
2022	4–4	4.5 of 8	−0.5	8–9
2021	3–3	2.2 of 6	+0.8	10–7
2020	3–4	3.3 of 7	−0.3	7–9
2019	4–3	3.1 of 7	+0.9	12–4

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Seahawks	L 10–13	23%	−23

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · New England Patriots, every season