One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer
The Patriots in one-score games
The Patriots are 3–2 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 7–3 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.6 of those 5. Since 2019: 31–33 in 64 one-score games, 28.4 wins in replays.
A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.
Close-game luck by season
One-score wins minus how many of those games the Patriots win in replays (regular season).
2026 one-score games
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Seahawks | L 10–13 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 4 | @ Bills | W 29–26 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 6 | vs Jets | W 26–19 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 7 | @ Bears | L 24–30 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 8 | @ Dolphins | W 24–19 | 42% | +58 |
Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · New England Patriots, every season