2023 season · final

New England Patriots, 2023: game by game

The Patriots went 4–13 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.3 wins. Luck cost them 0.3: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–8.

Every game

How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Eagles	L 20–25	28%	−28
Week 2	vs Dolphins	L 17–24	12%	−12
Week 3	@ Jets	W 15–10	86%	+14
Week 4	@ Cowboys	L 3–38	3%	−3
Week 5	vs Saints	L 0–34	10%	−10
Week 6	@ Raiders	L 17–21	5%	−5
Week 7	vs Bills	W 29–25	18%	+82
Week 8	@ Dolphins	L 17–31	4%	−4
Week 9	vs Commanders	L 17–20	26%	−26
Week 10	vs Colts	L 6–10	23%	−23
Week 12	@ Giants	L 7–10	45%	−45
Week 13	vs Chargers	L 0–6	25%	−25
Week 14	@ Steelers	W 21–18	46%	+54
Week 15	vs Chiefs	L 17–27	7%	−7
Week 16	@ Broncos	W 26–23	69%	+31
Week 17	@ Bills	L 21–27	22%	−22
Week 18	vs Jets	L 3–17	3%	−3

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −28 vs PHI

Wk 2 −12 vs MIA

Wk 3 +14 @ NYJ

Wk 4 −3 @ DAL

Wk 5 −10 vs NO

Wk 6 −5 @ LV

Wk 7 +82 vs BUF

Wk 8 −4 @ MIA

Wk 9 −26 vs WAS

Wk 10 −23 vs IND

Wk 12 −45 @ NYG

Wk 13 −25 vs LAC

Wk 14 +54 @ PIT

Wk 15 −7 vs KC

Wk 16 +31 @ DEN

Wk 17 −22 @ BUF

Wk 18 −3 vs NYJ

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Rest	+0.03	+1.2
Drops	−0.10	−0.1
Fumble bounces	−0.16	−16.2
3rd & 4th downs	−0.17	−13.7
Injuries	−0.37	−14.7
Judgment calls	−0.43	−6.0
Kicks	−0.45	−16.1