luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Patriots at Raiders, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Patriots 21–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Patriots: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Raiders were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:52 left): the Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 15, worth 14 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

New England Patriots 17
Las Vegas Raiders 21

October 15, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3

Luck index +5 Raiders about even · −5 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 NE 22 LV 17
  2. 2 NE 10 LV 12
  3. 3 NE 13 LV 17
  4. 4 NE 6 LV 13
  5. 5 NE 7 LV 17
  6. 6 NE 14 LV 27
  7. 7 NE 3 LV 19
  8. 8 NE 13 LV 31
  9. 9 NE 3 LV 24
  10. 10 NE 3 LV 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Patriots

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.

37 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained +0.09 +0.05 better by 0.04
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed +0.09 +0.06 worse by 0.03
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.09 +0.10 worse by 0.01
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.09 +0.11 better by 0.02

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 5% of them, Raiders 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+0.2%
Patriots by 9–160.9%
Patriots by 1–84.0%
Level after regulation1.1%
Raiders by 1–818.8%
Raiders by 9–1628.1%
Raiders by 17+47.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 4.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Ryland, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • D. Carlson, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Carlson, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:17 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% LV LV: Field goal
2 Q1 8:37 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedD. Carter dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 60 catchable balls before this +9% NE LV: Field goal
3 Q1 8:33 Leverage on the Patriots (Sam Roberts), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 119 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +10% LV LV: Field goal
4 Q3 7:39 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +10% LV LV: Field goal
5 Q4 7:02 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 11 yardsJudgment calls +8% LV LV: Punt
7 Q4 2:05 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 7 yardsJudgment calls +13% LV LV: End of game
8 Q4 1:52 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedDelay of Game on the Patriots, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +14% LV NE: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Christian Gonzalez (NE CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marcus Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Matt Judon (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Michael Onwenu (NE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cole Strange (NE G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 62% · Raiders 38%

Final margin
Raiders by 4
Luck in points
8.7 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 5% · Raiders 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Patriots · Raiders

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