luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Giants at Bills, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Giants 14–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 6.9 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Bills were 87% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:29 left): T. Bass missed 53-yard field goal, worth 25 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 9
Buffalo Bills 14

October 15, 2023 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −15.5

Luck index +3 Bills about even · −3 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 17 BUF 19
  2. 2 NYG 10 BUF 16
  3. 3 NYG 22 BUF 31
  4. 4 NYG 13 BUF 24
  5. 5 NYG 13 BUF 27
  6. 6 NYG 10 BUF 27
  7. 7 NYG 6 BUF 26
  8. 8 NYG 7 BUF 30
  9. 9 NYG 7 BUF 34
  10. 10 NYG 3 BUF 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 3% of them, Bills 97%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.0%
Giants by 9–160.4%
Giants by 1–82.5%
Level after regulation0.4%
Bills by 1–812.2%
Bills by 9–1620.3%
Bills by 17+64.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 14.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 29 yds made · 99% expected
  • T. Bass, 52 yds missed · 70% expected
  • G. Gano, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • G. Gano, 29 yds made · 99% expected
  • T. Bass, 53 yds missed · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:38 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q2 13:45 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% BUF BUF: Missed field goal
3 Q2 9:39 T. Bass missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 27 of 35 from 45+ before +10% NYG BUF: Turnover
4 Q4 15:00 The Bills converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:52 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% BUF NYG: End of game
6 Q4 1:29 T. Bass missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 27 of 36 from 45+ before +25% NYG –
7 Q4 0:28 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% BUF NYG: End of game
8 Q4 0:22 The Giants converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +15% NYG NYG: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre'Davious White (BUF CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Dalton Kincaid (BUF TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DaQuan Jones (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out, replaced by t.taylor · 2.0 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out · 0.9 pts
  • John Michael Schmitz (NYG C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jarrad Davis (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 2% · Bills 98%

Final margin
Bills by 5
Luck in points
9.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 14.4
Replay with same day's form
Giants 3% · Bills 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Giants · Bills

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