luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

Giants at Bills, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Giants 14–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 37 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Bills were 87% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:29 left): T. Bass missed a 53-yard field goal, worth 25 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 9
Buffalo Bills 14

October 15, 2023 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −15.5

Luck index +5 Bills about even · −5 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 14 BUF 17
  2. 2 NYG 17 BUF 24
  3. 3 NYG 10 BUF 20
  4. 4 NYG 13 BUF 24
  5. 5 NYG 16 BUF 30
  6. 6 NYG 13 BUF 30
  7. 7 NYG 6 BUF 25
  8. 8 NYG 7 BUF 28
  9. 9 NYG 3 BUF 29
  10. 10 NYG 0 BUF 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 5% of them, Bills 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.1%
Giants by 9–161.1%
Giants by 1–83.6%
Level after regulation0.5%
Bills by 1–814.5%
Bills by 9–1620.3%
Bills by 17+59.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.8 points to the Giants: the final margin was Bills by 5, without the luck Bills by 17.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bass, 52 yds missed · 70% expected
  • G. Gano, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • G. Gano, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bass, 53 yds missed · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 9 for 65 yards, Bills 7 for 51 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 9 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 4:06 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 14:05 False Start on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.6 pts
Q2 13:56 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 10 yards +3% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 13:45 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play +14% BUF +4.6 pts
Q2 12:07 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 6:19 Illegal Shift on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% BUF +1.1 pts
Q2 5:08 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 5:03 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Bobby Okereke), 15 yards +4% BUF +1.2 pts
Q2 5:03 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.3 pts
Q2 0:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Kaiir Elam), 9 yards +3% NYG +1.6 pts
Q3 9:52 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 5 yards +2% BUF +0.7 pts
Q4 14:54 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Cam Brown), 10 yards +2% BUF +0.5 pts
Q4 12:24 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Terrel Bernard), 5 yards +4% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 9:25 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 5 yards +3% BUF +0.9 pts
Q4 0:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Terrel Bernard), 8 yards +10% NYG +1.6 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:38 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q2 13:45 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% BUF BUF: Missed field goal
3 Q2 9:39 T. Bass missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 27 of 35 from 45+ before +10% NYG BUF: Turnover
4 Q4 15:00 The Bills converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:29 T. Bass missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 27 of 36 from 45+ before +25% NYG –
6 Q4 0:28 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +11% BUF NYG: End of game
7 Q4 0:22 The Giants converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +15% NYG NYG: End of game
8 Q4 0:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Terrel Bernard), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 687 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +10% NYG NYG: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre'Davious White (BUF CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Dalton Kincaid (BUF TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DaQuan Jones (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out, replaced by t.taylor · 2.0 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out · 0.9 pts
  • John Michael Schmitz (NYG C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jarrad Davis (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 5
Luck in points
12.8 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 17.8
Replay with same day's form
Giants 5% · Bills 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · Giants · Bills

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