Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023
Seahawks at Bengals, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Seahawks 17–13, but the replays lean toward the Seahawks: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form.
The Bengals won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:41 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 8, worth 22 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 13 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +77 Bengals very lucky · −77 Seahawks
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 8, Bengals win 2.
- 1 SEA 29 CIN 0
- 2 SEA 37 CIN 16
- 3 SEA 37 CIN 20
- 4 SEA 26 CIN 13
- 5 SEA 23 CIN 13
- 6 SEA 26 CIN 19
- 7 SEA 21 CIN 17
- 8 SEA 26 CIN 24
- 9 SEA 13 CIN 16
- 10 SEA 6 CIN 20
Your call
Did the Bengals earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bengals won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | +0.05 | +0.11 | worse by 0.06 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.12 | better by 0.16 |
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.11 | worse by 0.15 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.07 | better by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 77% of them, Bengals 23%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 28.6% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 20.9% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 26.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 12.8% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Myers, 55 yds made · 59% expected
- J. Myers, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- E. McPherson, 52 yds made · 66% expected
Penalties: Seahawks 7 for 64 yards, Bengals 5 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:43 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Nick Scott), 2 yards | +3% SEA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:12 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Jarran Reed), 4 yards · pre-snap | +6% CIN +2.7 pts |
| Q2 11:29 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards | +4% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Brown), 10 yards | +2% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:00 | Face Mask on the Bengals (B.J. Hill), 15 yards | +7% SEA +1.8 pts |
| Q3 11:10 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:29 | Low Block on the Seahawks (Kenneth Walker III), 15 yards | +8% CIN +2.0 pts |
| Q3 4:16 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Daxton Hill), 6 yards | +4% SEA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 11:47 | Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (D.J. Reader), 15 yards | +2% SEA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 11:42 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Seahawks (Kenneth Walker III), 10 yards | +5% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:19 | Defensive Offside on the Bengals (Sam Hubbard), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% SEA +0.5 pts |
Seahawks penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 13:00 | Face Mask on the Bengals (B.J. Hill), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3161 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 | +7% SEA | SEA: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 10:49 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +10% SEA | SEA: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 9:29 | Low Block on the Seahawks (Kenneth Walker III), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 776 snaps before, position avg 1 per 870 | +8% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 11:56 | I. Smith dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 37 catchable balls before this | +9% SEA | CIN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 7:04 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +8% SEA | CIN: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 3:54 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +10% SEA | SEA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 2:08 | The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +18% CIN | SEA: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:41 | The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +22% CIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Coby Bryant (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Damien Lewis (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 3% · Bengals 97%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 4
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 9.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 77% · Bengals 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · 
Seahawks · 
Bengals
More from Week 6 2023
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 19–8 · replay 86% for the winner
- Ravens vs Titans BAL 24–16 · replay 59% for the winner
- Panthers at Dolphins MIA 42–21 · replay 95% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 37–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 19–13 · replay 81% for the winner
- Saints at Texans HOU 20–13 · replay 53% for the winner
- 49ers at Browns CLE 19–17 · replay 17% for the winner
- Commanders at Falcons WAS 24–16 · replay 46% for the winner
- Patriots at Raiders LV 21–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams LA 26–9 · replay 93% for the winner
- Lions at Buccaneers DET 20–6 · replay 60% for the winner
- Eagles at Jets NYJ 20–14 · replay 30% for the winner
- Giants at Bills BUF 14–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Cowboys at Chargers DAL 20–17 · replay 73% for the winner