luckadjusted

Week 6 2023 · October 15, 2023

49ers at Browns, Week 6 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns stole one. They beat the 49ers 19–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 6.9 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:09 left): J. Moody missed 41-yard field goal, worth 23 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 17
Cleveland Browns 19

October 15, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −9.5

Luck index +82 Browns very lucky · −82 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 8, Browns win 2.

  1. 1 SF 41 CLE 9
  2. 2 SF 47 CLE 24
  3. 3 SF 30 CLE 12
  4. 4 SF 31 CLE 17
  5. 5 SF 27 CLE 16
  6. 6 SF 30 CLE 23
  7. 7 SF 33 CLE 28
  8. 8 SF 22 CLE 20
  9. 9 SF 17 CLE 20
  10. 10 SF 7 CLE 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 82% of them, Browns 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+41.1%
49ers by 9–1621.1%
49ers by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation1.9%
Browns by 1–810.3%
Browns by 9–164.0%
Browns by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 3.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 54 yds missed · 60% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 47 yds missed · 72% expected
  • J. Moody, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 42 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 46 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 50 yds made · 66% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Moody, 41 yds missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:23 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% SF SF: Punt
2 Q2 5:43 The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +10% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:17 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% CLE SF: Punt
4 Q4 6:52 The Browns converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +11% CLE CLE: Field goal
5 Q4 4:10 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +21% SF CLE: Field goal
6 Q4 2:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +10% CLE CLE: Field goal
7 Q4 0:49 The 49ers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +11% SF SF: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:09 J. Moody missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for himUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns, 15 yardsJudgment calls +23% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Joel Bitonio (CLE G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dre Greenlaw (SF LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 64% · Browns 36%

Final margin
Browns by 2
Luck in points
5.1 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
49ers 82% · Browns 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2023 games · 49ers · Browns

More from Week 6 2023