luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Eagles at Patriots, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Patriots 25–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:24 left): H. Henry dropped a catchable pass, worth 19 points of win probability to the Eagles. The biggest single swing (Q1, 5:12 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 25
New England Patriots 20

September 10, 2023 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −3.5

Luck index +28 Eagles lucky · −28 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 7, Patriots win 3.

  1. 1 PHI 38 NE 13
  2. 2 PHI 24 NE 6
  3. 3 PHI 31 NE 16
  4. 4 PHI 16 NE 6
  5. 5 PHI 17 NE 10
  6. 6 PHI 25 NE 20
  7. 7 PHI 25 NE 23
  8. 8 PHI 20 NE 23
  9. 9 PHI 23 NE 33
  10. 10 PHI 10 NE 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 72% of them, Patriots 28%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+25.3%
Eagles by 9–1621.6%
Eagles by 1–822.2%
Level after regulation3.6%
Patriots by 1–814.5%
Patriots by 9–168.6%
Patriots by 17+4.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.9 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 5, without the luck Patriots by 3.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Elliott, 56 yds made · 61% expected
  • J. Elliott, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Elliott, 51 yds made · 67% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 5 for 49 yards, Patriots 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:21 Defensive Offside on the Patriots (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.5 pts
Q1 3:06 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Kyle Dugger), 5 yards +2% PHI +1.5 pts
Q2 3:56 Chop Block on the Eagles (Jack Stoll), 14 yards, wiping out the play +6% NE +2.0 pts
Q2 2:47 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Eagles (Patrick Johnson), 5 yards 0% NE +0.2 pts
Q2 1:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Josh Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.5 pts
Q3 10:20 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +4% NE +1.5 pts
Q3 4:26 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 10 yards +5% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 4:00 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +4% PHI +0.9 pts
Q4 12:49 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Milton Williams), 15 yards +5% NE +1.8 pts
Q4 8:05 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.2 pts
Q4 3:37 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q4 2:24 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.6 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:12 The Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throwsReturn touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +37% PHI NE: Turnover
2 Q4 11:44 The Patriots converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +17% NE NE: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 3:35 The Eagles fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NE PHI: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 2:29 K. Bourne dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 46 catchable balls before this +15% PHI NE: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 2:24 The game turned hereH. Henry dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 52 catchable balls before thisDelay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +19% PHI NE: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 2:00 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedThe Eagles got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +10% NE PHI: End of game
7 Q4 1:39 The Patriots got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +30% NE NE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:29 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +19% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeVante Parker (NE WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Michael Onwenu (NE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Conor McDermott (NE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyquan Thornton (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Strange (NE G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 36% · Patriots 64%

Final margin
Eagles by 5
Luck in points
8.9 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 72% · Patriots 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Eagles · Patriots

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