luckadjusted

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Saints at Patriots, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Patriots 34–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.1 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:11 left): Return touchdown by the Saints, worth 44 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 34
New England Patriots 0

October 8, 2023 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −2.5

Luck index +12 Saints about even · −12 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 9, Patriots win 1.

  1. 1 NO 36 NE 3
  2. 2 NO 32 NE 9
  3. 3 NO 29 NE 10
  4. 4 NO 16 NE 0
  5. 5 NO 20 NE 7
  6. 6 NO 33 NE 23
  7. 7 NO 17 NE 10
  8. 8 NO 16 NE 12
  9. 9 NO 23 NE 21
  10. 10 NO 17 NE 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 88% of them, Patriots 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+49.3%
Saints by 9–1621.0%
Saints by 1–817.4%
Level after regulation2.1%
Patriots by 1–86.6%
Patriots by 9–162.9%
Patriots by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 34. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 20.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 48 yds missed · 71% expected
  • B. Grupe, 54 yds made · 62% expected
  • B. Grupe, 53 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:53 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% NO NO: Punt
2 Q1 11:23 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% NE NO: Punt
3 Q1 8:02 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% NE NO: Punt
4 Q1 7:11 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +44% NO NE: Missed field goal
5 Q1 5:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 23 flags in 3581 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +5% NE NE: Missed field goal
6 Q1 3:45 C. Ryland missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ before +8% NO NE: Punt
7 Q1 2:03 The Saints converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q3 14:04 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedThe Patriots fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NO NE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Gonzalez (NE CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marcus Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Matt Judon (NE LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyquan Thornton (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Calvin Anderson (NE T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Strange (NE G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Juwan Johnson (NO TE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 100% · Patriots 0%

Final margin
Saints by 34
Luck in points
13.4 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 20.6
Replay with same day's form
Saints 88% · Patriots 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Saints · Patriots

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