luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Titans at Colts, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Titans 23–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Titans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:09 left): the Titans were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 20 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Tennessee Titans 16
Indianapolis Colts 23

October 8, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Titans −2.5

Luck index +39 Colts lucky · −39 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 4, Colts win 6.

  1. 1 TEN 17 IND 0
  2. 2 TEN 17 IND 7
  3. 3 TEN 27 IND 21
  4. 4 TEN 19 IND 17
  5. 5 TEN 10 IND 12
  6. 6 TEN 19 IND 24
  7. 7 TEN 13 IND 20
  8. 8 TEN 6 IND 16
  9. 9 TEN 9 IND 24
  10. 10 TEN 7 IND 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 39% of them, Colts 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+3.9%
Titans by 9–1612.7%
Titans by 1–821.0%
Level after regulation2.9%
Colts by 1–831.6%
Colts by 9–1617.1%
Colts by 17+10.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 7, without the luck Colts by 2.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • N. Folk, 53 yds made · 68% expected
  • N. Folk, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Gay, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Gay, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 4 for 58 yards, Colts 8 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:04 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.5 pts
Q1 9:56 Defensive Offside on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.2 pts
Q2 12:50 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +3% TEN +0.8 pts
Q2 8:47 Illegal Contact on the Colts (Julius Brents), 5 yards +1% TEN +0.5 pts
Q2 6:27 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +2% IND +0.9 pts
Q3 9:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 22 yards +6% IND +2.0 pts
Q3 3:38 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Chigoziem Okonkwo), 10 yards +4% IND +1.0 pts
Q3 0:11 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +6% TEN +1.6 pts
Q4 13:26 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TEN +0.5 pts
Q4 4:40 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% TEN +1.4 pts
Q4 4:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 16 yards +9% IND +2.6 pts
Q4 0:30 Defensive Delay of Game on the Colts (Samson Ebukam), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TEN +0.5 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:21 C. Okonkwo dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 53 catchable balls before this +8% IND TEN: Field goal
2 Q2 11:56 The Colts converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +8% IND IND: Field goal
3 Q2 0:15 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +9% TEN IND: Touchdown
4 Q3 2:50 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +10% TEN TEN: Field goal
5 Q4 8:09 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +20% IND TEN: Turnover
6 Q4 4:40 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 3117 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +10% TEN TEN: Turnover
7 Q4 4:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1835 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +9% IND IND: Field goal
8 Q4 3:03 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% IND IND: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Bernhard Raimann (IND T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Dallis Flowers (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Shaquille Leonard (IND LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jelani Woods (IND TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Teair Tart (TEN DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 42% · Colts 58%

Final margin
Colts by 7
Luck in points
4.2 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Titans 39% · Colts 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Titans · Colts

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