luckadjusted

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Titans at Colts, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Titans 23–16, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Colts win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 2.7 points to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Titans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:09 left): the Titans were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 20 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Tennessee Titans 16
Indianapolis Colts 23

October 8, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Titans −2.5

Luck index +50 Colts lucky · −50 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 5, Colts win 5.

  1. 1 TEN 19 IND 0
  2. 2 TEN 23 IND 10
  3. 3 TEN 21 IND 13
  4. 4 TEN 21 IND 17
  5. 5 TEN 17 IND 14
  6. 6 TEN 6 IND 8
  7. 7 TEN 5 IND 9
  8. 8 TEN 7 IND 14
  9. 9 TEN 21 IND 33
  10. 10 TEN 0 IND 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 50% of them, Colts 50%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+7.7%
Titans by 9–1614.5%
Titans by 1–823.6%
Level after regulation8.1%
Colts by 1–824.2%
Colts by 9–1614.1%
Colts by 17+7.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 2.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Gay, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • N. Folk, 53 yds made · 67% expected
  • N. Folk, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Gay, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Gay, 28 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:21 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedC. Okonkwo dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 53 catchable balls before this +9% IND TEN: Field goal
2 Q1 0:50 The Colts converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +19% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:56 The Colts converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +12% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q3 2:50 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% TEN TEN: Field goal
5 Q4 8:09 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +20% IND TEN: Turnover
6 Q4 6:41 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +10% IND IND: Field goal
7 Q4 4:40 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 3117 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +10% TEN TEN: Turnover
8 Q4 3:03 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% IND IND: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Bernhard Raimann (IND T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Dallis Flowers (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Shaquille Leonard (IND LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jelani Woods (IND TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Teair Tart (TEN DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 49% · Colts 51%

Final margin
Colts by 7
Luck in points
4.5 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Titans 50% · Colts 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Titans · Colts

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