luckadjusted

Week 5 2023 · October 5, 2023

Bears at Commanders, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Commanders 40–20, but the Commanders played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.6 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:16 left): the Bears converted 3rd & 9, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 40
Washington Commanders 20

October 5, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −6

Luck index +78 Bears very lucky · −78 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Commanders win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 34 WAS 21
  2. 2 CHI 27 WAS 23
  3. 3 CHI 17 WAS 20
  4. 4 CHI 11 WAS 16
  5. 5 CHI 10 WAS 19
  6. 6 CHI 13 WAS 24
  7. 7 CHI 12 WAS 26
  8. 8 CHI 6 WAS 23
  9. 9 CHI 16 WAS 37
  10. 10 CHI 14 WAS 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 22% of them, Commanders 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+2.0%
Bears by 9–167.4%
Bears by 1–812.3%
Level after regulation1.8%
Commanders by 1–824.7%
Commanders by 9–1620.4%
Commanders by 17+31.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 18.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • C. Santos, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Slye, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Santos, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Slye, 46 yds missed · 79% expected
  • C. Santos, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:16 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +16% CHI CHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:09 The Bears converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:54 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% CHI WAS: Punt
4 Q1 4:20 C. Santos made 22-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +3% WAS CHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:20 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:20 J. Slye made 32-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +3% CHI WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:55 The Commanders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:18 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedA. Gibson dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 62 catchable balls before this +9% CHI WAS: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Chase Claypool (CHI WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Braxton Jones (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Eddie Jackson (CHI FS), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 100% · Commanders 0%

Final margin
Bears by 20
Luck in points
1.9 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 18.1
Replay with same day's form
Bears 22% · Commanders 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Bears · Commanders

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