luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2023 · October 5, 2023

Bears at Commanders, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Commanders 40–20, but the replays lean toward the Commanders: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:18 left): A. Gibson dropped a catchable pass, worth 9 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 40
Washington Commanders 20

October 5, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −6

Luck index +63 Bears very lucky · −63 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 4, Commanders win 6.

  1. 1 CHI 37 WAS 17
  2. 2 CHI 24 WAS 13
  3. 3 CHI 23 WAS 17
  4. 4 CHI 30 WAS 28
  5. 5 CHI 27 WAS 29
  6. 6 CHI 24 WAS 29
  7. 7 CHI 19 WAS 28
  8. 8 CHI 28 WAS 40
  9. 9 CHI 19 WAS 37
  10. 10 CHI 16 WAS 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 37% of them, Commanders 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+6.0%
Bears by 9–1610.6%
Bears by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation2.6%
Commanders by 1–823.5%
Commanders by 9–1619.0%
Commanders by 17+19.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.9 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 20, without the luck Bears by 15.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. Santos, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Slye, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Santos, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Slye, 46 yds missed · 80% expected
  • C. Santos, 37 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 3 for 35 yards, Commanders 1 for 5 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:41 False Start on the Commanders (Byron Pringle), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.5 pts
Q2 8:49 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Dominique Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 12:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 25 yards +3% WAS +1.9 pts
Q3 7:54 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.3 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:16 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% CHI CHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:09 The Bears converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:54 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +3% CHI WAS: Punt
4 Q2 14:20 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +3% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q3 12:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 25 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 237 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +3% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:20 J. Slye made a 32-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +3% CHI WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:18 A. Gibson dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 62 catchable balls before this +9% CHI WAS: Missed field goal
8 Q4 5:14 J. Slye missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 35 of 52 from 45+ before +3% CHI WAS: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Chase Claypool (CHI WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Braxton Jones (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Eddie Jackson (CHI FS), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 98% · Commanders 2%

Final margin
Bears by 20
Luck in points
4.9 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 15.1
Replay with same day's form
Bears 37% · Commanders 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Bears · Commanders

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