luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Panthers at Lions, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Panthers 42–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:10 left): the Panthers converted 3rd & 12, worth 8 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 24
Detroit Lions 42

October 8, 2023 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −9.5

Luck index +3 Lions about even · −3 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 0, Lions win 10.

  1. 1 CAR 31 DET 34
  2. 2 CAR 17 DET 23
  3. 3 CAR 13 DET 22
  4. 4 CAR 22 DET 34
  5. 5 CAR 17 DET 32
  6. 6 CAR 14 DET 31
  7. 7 CAR 16 DET 37
  8. 8 CAR 10 DET 34
  9. 9 CAR 17 DET 47
  10. 10 CAR 3 DET 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 3% of them, Lions 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.1%
Panthers by 9–160.6%
Panthers by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.5%
Lions by 1–87.7%
Lions by 9–1618.3%
Lions by 17+70.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Lions by 18, without the luck Lions by 21.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Panthers 7 for 45 yards, Lions 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:07 False Start on the Panthers (Chandler Wooten), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.4 pts
Q1 1:25 Illegal Formation on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +1.3 pts
Q1 0:53 Illegal Contact on the Lions (Jack Campbell), 5 yards +1% CAR +0.8 pts
Q2 0:32 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Jerry Jacobs), 5 yards 0% DET +0.7 pts
Q3 10:56 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +2.3 pts
Q3 8:43 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR 0.0 pts
Q3 7:33 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% DET +1.7 pts
Q3 5:21 Intentional Grounding on the Panthers (Bryce Young), 10 yards 0% DET +0.9 pts
Q3 5:21 False Start on the Panthers (Hayden Hurst), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 12:03 Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Charles Harris), 15 yards 0% CAR +1.1 pts
Q4 2:26 Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Alex Anzalone), 5 yards 0% CAR +1.8 pts
Q4 2:12 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.8 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:10 The Panthers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% CAR CAR: Punt
2 Q1 11:16 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +4% DET CAR: Punt
3 Q1 11:07 False Start on the Panthers (Chandler Wooten), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 245 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +3% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:49 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +3% CAR CAR: Turnover
5 Q2 10:12 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% CAR DET: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:07 The Panthers fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% DET CAR: Turnover
7 Q2 7:56 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +4% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q2 3:50 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% CAR CAR: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • Brian Branch (DET SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Xavier Woods (CAR FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Lions 100%

Final margin
Lions by 18
Luck in points
3.6 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 21.6
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 3% · Lions 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Panthers · Lions

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