luckadjusted

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Panthers at Lions, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Panthers 42–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.2 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Lions were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:10 left): the Panthers converted 3rd & 12, worth 8 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 24
Detroit Lions 42

October 8, 2023 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −9.5

Luck index +8 Lions about even · −8 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Lions win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 28 DET 23
  2. 2 CAR 10 DET 13
  3. 3 CAR 10 DET 16
  4. 4 CAR 26 DET 34
  5. 5 CAR 20 DET 31
  6. 6 CAR 10 DET 25
  7. 7 CAR 12 DET 30
  8. 8 CAR 6 DET 27
  9. 9 CAR 10 DET 35
  10. 10 CAR 3 DET 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 8% of them, Lions 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.4%
Panthers by 9–162.1%
Panthers by 1–85.2%
Level after regulation1.6%
Lions by 1–816.4%
Lions by 9–1621.1%
Lions by 17+53.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 23.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:10 The Panthers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% CAR CAR: Punt
2 Q1 11:16 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% DET CAR: Punt
3 Q2 12:52 The Panthers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +4% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:17 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% CAR DET: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 10:12 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% CAR DET: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:07 The Panthers fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% DET CAR: Turnover
7 Q2 7:56 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q2 3:50 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% CAR CAR: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR), out · 1.5 pts
  • Brian Branch (DET SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Xavier Woods (CAR FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Lions 100%

Final margin
Lions by 18
Luck in points
5.5 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 23.5
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 8% · Lions 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Panthers · Lions

More from Week 5 2023