luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Commanders at Patriots, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Patriots 20–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

An off day for the Patriots: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Patriots were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:38 left): the Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 58 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 20
New England Patriots 17

November 5, 2023 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −2.5

Luck index +26 Commanders lucky · −26 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 7, Patriots win 3.

  1. 1 WAS 30 NE 3
  2. 2 WAS 29 NE 10
  3. 3 WAS 24 NE 10
  4. 4 WAS 28 NE 17
  5. 5 WAS 25 NE 17
  6. 6 WAS 16 NE 10
  7. 7 WAS 20 NE 17
  8. 8 WAS 20 NE 23
  9. 9 WAS 30 NE 37
  10. 10 WAS 6 NE 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Patriots

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%.

31 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Commanders offenseEPA per play gained +0.17 +0.05 better by 0.12
Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.06 +0.08 better by 0.14
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained −0.06 +0.06 worse by 0.12
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed +0.17 +0.09 worse by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 74% of them, Patriots 26%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+24.8%
Commanders by 9–1621.4%
Commanders by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation3.9%
Patriots by 1–814.7%
Patriots by 9–166.8%
Patriots by 17+3.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 3, without the luck Patriots by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • C. Ryland, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Slye, 30 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 4 for 30 yards, Patriots 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 6:06 Illegal Formation on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.5 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Offside on the Patriots (Anfernee Jennings), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 1:55 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.7 pts
Q3 11:18 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (K.J. Henry), 15 yards, wiping out the play +8% NE +3.3 pts
Q4 7:22 Face Mask on the Patriots (Brenden Schooler), 9 yards +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q4 5:15 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Christian Holmes), 5 yards 0% NE +0.4 pts
Q4 2:41 Defensive Offside on the Patriots (Mack Wilson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% NE +0.2 pts
Q4 2:16 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Brenden Schooler), 11 yards +12% WAS +0.8 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:46 The Commanders converted 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 14% expected +12% WAS WAS: Turnover
2 Q3 11:18 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (K.J. Henry), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 13 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +8% NE NE: Field goal
3 Q3 3:54 The Commanders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% WAS WAS: Field goal
4 Q4 15:00 E. Elliott dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 38 catchable balls before this +9% WAS NE: Punt
5 Q4 2:41 Defensive Offside on the Patriots (Mack Wilson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 2641 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +9% NE WAS: Punt
6 Q4 2:16 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Brenden Schooler), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 523 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +12% WAS WAS: End of game
7 Q4 1:02 The Patriots converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +22% NE NE: Turnover
8 Q4 0:38 The Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +58% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Gonzalez (NE CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • DeVante Parker (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kendrick Bourne (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Vederian Lowe (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Judon (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Curtis Samuel (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Barton (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Saahdiq Charles (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 38% · Patriots 62%

Final margin
Commanders by 3
Luck in points
5.2 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 74% · Patriots 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Commanders · Patriots

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