luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Commanders at Patriots, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Patriots 20–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.3 points to the Patriots.

An off day for the Patriots: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Patriots were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:38 left): the Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 58 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 20
New England Patriots 17

November 5, 2023 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −2.5

Luck index +26 Commanders lucky · −26 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 7, Patriots win 3.

  1. 1 WAS 44 NE 16
  2. 2 WAS 30 NE 9
  3. 3 WAS 31 NE 16
  4. 4 WAS 40 NE 29
  5. 5 WAS 30 NE 22
  6. 6 WAS 20 NE 16
  7. 7 WAS 27 NE 25
  8. 8 WAS 17 NE 20
  9. 9 WAS 22 NE 30
  10. 10 WAS 17 NE 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Patriots

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%.

30 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Commanders offenseEPA per play gained +0.17 +0.05 better by 0.12
Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.06 +0.08 better by 0.14
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained −0.06 +0.06 worse by 0.12
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed +0.17 +0.09 worse by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 74% of them, Patriots 26%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+25.6%
Commanders by 9–1620.8%
Commanders by 1–824.1%
Level after regulation4.0%
Patriots by 1–814.8%
Patriots by 9–167.4%
Patriots by 17+3.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 1.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Ryland, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Slye, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:33 The Commanders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:46 The Commanders converted 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 13% expected +12% WAS WAS: Turnover
3 Q3 3:54 The Commanders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% WAS WAS: Field goal
4 Q4 15:00 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedE. Elliott dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 38 catchable balls before this +12% WAS NE: Punt
5 Q4 2:41 Defensive Offside on the Patriots (Mack Wilson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 5 flags in 2641 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +9% NE WAS: Punt
6 Q4 2:16 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Brenden Schooler), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 523 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +12% WAS WAS: End of game
7 Q4 1:02 The Patriots converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +22% NE NE: Turnover
8 Q4 0:38 The Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +58% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Gonzalez (NE CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • DeVante Parker (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kendrick Bourne (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Vederian Lowe (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Judon (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Curtis Samuel (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Barton (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Saahdiq Charles (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 46% · Patriots 54%

Final margin
Commanders by 3
Luck in points
4.9 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 74% · Patriots 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Commanders · Patriots

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