luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Cowboys at Eagles, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 28–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:05 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 26, worth 50 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 23
Philadelphia Eagles 28

November 5, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −3.5

Luck index +46 Eagles lucky · −46 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 5, Eagles win 5.

  1. 1 DAL 27 PHI 9
  2. 2 DAL 37 PHI 24
  3. 3 DAL 21 PHI 13
  4. 4 DAL 20 PHI 14
  5. 5 DAL 29 PHI 27
  6. 6 DAL 19 PHI 21
  7. 7 DAL 20 PHI 24
  8. 8 DAL 14 PHI 23
  9. 9 DAL 10 PHI 23
  10. 10 DAL 17 PHI 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 46% of them, Eagles 54%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+8.8%
Cowboys by 9–1613.4%
Cowboys by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation5.6%
Eagles by 1–824.1%
Eagles by 9–1614.5%
Eagles by 17+10.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 5.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:28 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +12% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:23 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +11% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:25 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedM. Gallup dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 87 catchable balls before this +10% PHI DAL: Field goal
4 Q4 3:20 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 1:22 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +18% PHI DAL: Turnover
6 Q4 0:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (James Bradberry), 36 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 5105 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +13% DAL DAL: Turnover
7 Q4 0:40 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Haason Reddick), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3847 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +26% DAL DAL: Turnover
8 Q4 0:05 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 263rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +50% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quez Watkins (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cam Jurgens (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Evans (PHI FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 76% · Eagles 24%

Final margin
Eagles by 5
Luck in points
10.1 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 46% · Eagles 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Cowboys · Eagles

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