Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023
Vikings at Falcons, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Falcons 31–28, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Before kickoff the Falcons were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:52 left): the Vikings converted 4th & 7, worth 33 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 31 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Vikings lucky · −40 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 6, Falcons win 4.
- 1 MIN 39 ATL 13
- 2 MIN 37 ATL 20
- 3 MIN 40 ATL 27
- 4 MIN 29 ATL 20
- 5 MIN 26 ATL 20
- 6 MIN 16 ATL 13
- 7 MIN 20 ATL 22
- 8 MIN 14 ATL 20
- 9 MIN 27 ATL 38
- 10 MIN 10 ATL 30
Your call
Did the Vikings earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 60% of them, Falcons 40%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 16.7% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 16.6% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 24.5% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 19.0% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 11.6% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 7.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Y. Koo, 52 yds made · 72% expected
- G. Joseph, 19 yds made · 98% expected
- Y. Koo, 43 yds made · 85% expected
- Y. Koo, 23 yds made · 100% expected
- Y. Koo, 54 yds made · 70% expected
- G. Joseph, 32 yds made · 94% expected
- G. Joseph, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Vikings 1 for 4 yards, Falcons 8 for 62 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:34 | False Start on the Vikings, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% ATL +0.5 pts |
| Q1 0:02 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Van Jefferson), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% MIN +1.8 pts |
| Q2 7:49 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Nathan Landman), 2 yards | +5% MIN +1.8 pts |
| Q2 7:33 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons, 15 yards | +5% MIN +1.8 pts |
| Q2 0:51 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.2 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | Illegal Shift on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% MIN +1.5 pts |
| Q4 5:41 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Van Jefferson), 15 yards | +8% MIN +1.2 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 7:45 | The Vikings fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% ATL | MIN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 12:20 | Y. Koo made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 43 of 51 from 45+ before | +9% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 8:02 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +8% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 2:20 | The Vikings’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws | +13% MIN | MIN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 13:56 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +10% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 0:56 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +10% ATL | MIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:52 | The Vikings converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +33% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:27 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +22% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Drake London (ATL WR), out · 1.1 pts
- Grady Jarrett (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Kirk Cousins (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 6.2 pts
- Justin Jefferson (MIN WR), out (IR) · 1.8 pts
- Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out · 0.8 pts
- Ezra Cleveland (MIN G), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 59% · Falcons 41%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vikings by 7.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 60% · Falcons 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · 
Vikings · 
Falcons
More from Week 9 2023
- Titans at Steelers PIT 20–16 · replay 80% for the winner
- Dolphins vs Chiefs KC 21–14 · replay 70% for the winner
- Cardinals at Browns CLE 27–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bears at Saints NO 24–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Rams at Packers GB 20–3 · replay 85% for the winner
- Seahawks at Ravens BAL 37–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Texans HOU 39–37 · replay 70% for the winner
- Commanders at Patriots WAS 20–17 · replay 74% for the winner
- Colts at Panthers IND 27–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Cowboys at Eagles PHI 28–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Giants at Raiders LV 30–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bills at Bengals CIN 24–18 · replay 30% for the winner
- Chargers at Jets LAC 27–6 · replay 67% for the winner