luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Vikings at Falcons, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Falcons 31–28, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 6.8 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:52 left): the Vikings converted 4th & 7, worth 34 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 31
Atlanta Falcons 28

November 5, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3.5

Luck index +56 Vikings lucky · −56 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 4, Falcons win 6.

  1. 1 MIN 40 ATL 16
  2. 2 MIN 26 ATL 13
  3. 3 MIN 23 ATL 16
  4. 4 MIN 30 ATL 28
  5. 5 MIN 25 ATL 27
  6. 6 MIN 13 ATL 17
  7. 7 MIN 30 ATL 37
  8. 8 MIN 6 ATL 17
  9. 9 MIN 14 ATL 31
  10. 10 MIN 9 ATL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 44% of them, Falcons 56%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+11.6%
Vikings by 9–1612.8%
Vikings by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation5.3%
Falcons by 1–822.1%
Falcons by 9–1615.1%
Falcons by 17+13.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 5.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 52 yds made · 72% expected
  • G. Joseph, 19 yds made · 99% expected
  • Y. Koo, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • Y. Koo, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • Y. Koo, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Joseph, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • G. Joseph, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:23 G. Joseph made 19-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +10% ATL MIN: Safety
2 Q3 13:53 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% ATL MIN: Field goal
3 Q3 2:20 The Vikings’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% MIN MIN: Field goal
4 Q4 14:22 G. Joseph made 31-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +9% MIN MIN: Punt
5 Q4 13:56 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +12% ATL ATL: Punt
6 Q4 0:56 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +10% ATL MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:52 The Vikings converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +34% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:27 The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +31% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drake London (ATL WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Grady Jarrett (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 6.2 pts
  • Justin Jefferson (MIN WR), out (IR) · 1.8 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Ezra Cleveland (MIN G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 41% · Falcons 59%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
2.9 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 44% · Falcons 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Vikings · Falcons

More from Week 9 2023