luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Giants at Raiders, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Giants 30–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em.

Final

New York Giants 6
Las Vegas Raiders 30

November 5, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −1

Luck index +2 Raiders about even · −2 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Raiders win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 13 LV 16
  2. 2 NYG 24 LV 33
  3. 3 NYG 20 LV 32
  4. 4 NYG 13 LV 27
  5. 5 NYG 14 LV 31
  6. 6 NYG 9 LV 29
  7. 7 NYG 10 LV 33
  8. 8 NYG 7 LV 33
  9. 9 NYG 6 LV 36
  10. 10 NYG 6 LV 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 2% of them, Raiders 98%. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.0%
Giants by 9–160.3%
Giants by 1–81.3%
Level after regulation0.4%
Raiders by 1–85.1%
Raiders by 9–1612.8%
Raiders by 17+80.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to the Giants: the final margin was Raiders by 24, without the luck Raiders by 25.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 46 yds made · 84% expected
  • D. Carlson, 41 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 3 for 8 yards, Raiders 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:03 False Start on the Giants, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.9 pts
Q1 12:20 False Start on the Raiders (Josh Jacobs), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.6 pts
Q1 4:19 False Start on the Raiders (Ameer Abdullah), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.4 pts
Q2 0:04 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 0 yards 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q3 14:52 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Michael Mayer), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NYG +2.2 pts
Q3 10:23 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards 0% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 1:44 False Start on the Giants (Daniel Bellinger), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.9 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:03 False Start on the Giants, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +2% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:28 The Giants got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +5% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 6:11 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +4% LV NYG: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 5:41 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% LV NYG: Punt
5 Q1 2:17 The Giants converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +3% NYG NYG: Punt
6 Q2 9:50 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +2% LV NYG: Punt
7 Q2 3:53 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +3% LV NYG: Turnover
8 Q2 1:57 The Giants were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +2% LV NYG: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darren Waller (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Raiders 100%

Final margin
Raiders by 24
Luck in points
1.2 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 25.2
Replay with same day's form
Giants 2% · Raiders 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Giants · Raiders

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