luckadjusted

Week 9 2023 · November 5, 2023

Giants at Raiders, Week 9 2023: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Giants 30–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.9 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em.

Final

New York Giants 6
Las Vegas Raiders 30

November 5, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −1

Luck index +4 Raiders about even · −4 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Raiders win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 27 LV 30
  2. 2 NYG 17 LV 24
  3. 3 NYG 17 LV 27
  4. 4 NYG 20 LV 33
  5. 5 NYG 3 LV 18
  6. 6 NYG 9 LV 26
  7. 7 NYG 6 LV 26
  8. 8 NYG 10 LV 33
  9. 9 NYG 10 LV 38
  10. 10 NYG 3 LV 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 4% of them, Raiders 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.0%
Giants by 9–160.8%
Giants by 1–82.2%
Level after regulation0.8%
Raiders by 1–87.7%
Raiders by 9–1617.7%
Raiders by 17+70.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 25.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 46 yds made · 84% expected
  • D. Carlson, 41 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:03 False Start on the Giants, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +2% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:28 The Giants got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 6:11 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +4% LV NYG: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 5:41 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% LV NYG: Punt
5 Q1 2:17 The Giants converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% NYG NYG: Punt
6 Q2 9:50 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +2% LV NYG: Punt
7 Q2 3:53 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +3% LV NYG: Turnover
8 Q2 1:57 The Giants were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +2% LV NYG: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darren Waller (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Raiders 100%

Final margin
Raiders by 24
Luck in points
1.5 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 25.5
Replay with same day's form
Giants 4% · Raiders 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2023 games · Giants · Raiders

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