Our New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills pick: Bills by 7.0, 71% to win, against a betting line of Bills −6.5. The forecast starts from what each team’s play has been worth once the luck is adjusted for, adds last season, who starts at quarterback and who is out hurt, and home field. No betting information goes in.
Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±12.9, so about 88% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Patriots vs Bills: questions and answers
Who will win Patriots vs Bills?
Our forecast picks the Bills, with 71% to win; the Patriots win 29% of the time.
What’s the spread for Patriots vs Bills?
Our spread: Bills −7.0. The betting line: Bills −6.5. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Patriots vs Bills?
Sunday, October 4, 2026, at 1:00 pm ET, at Highmark Stadium.
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