One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer
The Steelers in one-score games
The Steelers are 4–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 7–3 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 3.6 of those 5. Since 2019: 54–24–1 in 79 one-score games, 39.7 wins in replays.
A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.
Close-game luck by season
One-score wins minus how many of those games the Steelers win in replays (regular season).
2026 one-score games
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Falcons | W 20–13 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 3 | vs Bengals | W 30–27 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 4 | @ Browns | L 24–27 | 61% | −61 |
| Week 6 | @ Buccaneers | W 26–19 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 7 | vs Saints | W 16–10 | 61% | +39 |
Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Pittsburgh Steelers, every season