One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Steelers in one-score games

The Steelers are 1–0 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 7–3 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.7 of those 1. Since 2019: 51–23–1 in 75 one-score games, 35.8 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Steelers win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.3 1–0

2025 +2.1 7–3

2024 +2.0 6–4

2023 +3.4 9–2

2022 +1.2 7–5

2021 +3.7 8–2–1

2020 +1.5 7–2

2019 +1.6 6–5

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–0	0.7 of 1	+0.3	1–1
2025	7–3	4.9 of 10	+2.1	10–7
2024	6–4	4.0 of 10	+2.0	10–7
2023	9–2	5.6 of 11	+3.4	10–7
2022	7–5	5.8 of 12	+1.2	9–8
2021	8–2–1	4.8 of 11	+3.7	9–7–1
2020	7–2	5.5 of 9	+1.5	12–4
2019	6–5	4.4 of 11	+1.6	8–8

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Falcons	W 20–13	74%	+26

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Pittsburgh Steelers, every season