luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Pittsburgh Steelers, 2022: game by game

The Steelers went 9–8 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.5 wins. Luck added 1.5: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–5.

Every game

How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Bengals W 23–20 13% +87
Week 2 vs Patriots L 14–17 22% −22
Week 3 @ Browns L 17–29 17% −17
Week 4 vs Jets L 20–24 44% −44
Week 5 @ Bills L 3–38 2% −2
Week 6 vs Buccaneers W 20–18 27% +73
Week 7 @ Dolphins L 10–16 36% −36
Week 8 @ Eagles L 13–35 3% −3
Week 10 vs Saints W 20–10 83% +17
Week 11 vs Bengals L 30–37 6% −6
Week 12 @ Colts W 24–17 75% +25
Week 13 @ Falcons W 19–16 40% +60
Week 14 vs Ravens L 14–16 72% −72
Week 15 @ Panthers W 24–16 87% +13
Week 16 vs Raiders W 13–10 79% +21
Week 17 @ Ravens W 16–13 82% +19
Week 18 vs Browns W 28–14 66% +34

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+24.4+1.44
3rd & 4th downs+10.4+0.61
Rest−1.0−0.06
Judgment calls−2.8−0.16
Fumble bounces−4.7−0.28
Kicks−17.2−1.01