2022 season · final
Pittsburgh Steelers, 2022: game by game
The Steelers went 9–8 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.7 wins. Luck added 1.3: the 9th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–5.
Every game
How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bengals | W 23–20 | 22% | +78 |
| Week 2 | vs Patriots | L 14–17 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 3 | @ Browns | L 17–29 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 4 | vs Jets | L 20–24 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 5 | @ Bills | L 3–38 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 6 | vs Buccaneers | W 20–18 | 13% | +87 |
| Week 7 | @ Dolphins | L 10–16 | 37% | −37 |
| Week 8 | @ Eagles | L 13–35 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 10 | vs Saints | W 20–10 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 11 | vs Bengals | L 30–37 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 12 | @ Colts | W 24–17 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 13 | @ Falcons | W 19–16 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 14 | vs Ravens | L 14–16 | 74% | −74 |
| Week 15 | @ Panthers | W 24–16 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 16 | vs Raiders | W 13–10 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 17 | @ Ravens | W 16–13 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 18 | vs Browns | W 28–14 | 72% | +28 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.69 | −17.1 |
| Injuries | +0.54 | +18.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.35 | +9.7 |
| Judgment calls | −0.17 | +0.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.19 | −6.4 |
| Drops | −0.19 | −0.3 |