luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Browns at Steelers, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Browns 28–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: drops alone were worth 4.9 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:19 left): the Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 20 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 14
Pittsburgh Steelers 28

January 8, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −2.5

Luck index +34 Steelers lucky · −34 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 3, Steelers win 7.

  1. 1 CLE 34 PIT 17
  2. 2 CLE 17 PIT 8
  3. 3 CLE 13 PIT 10
  4. 4 CLE 23 PIT 25
  5. 5 CLE 10 PIT 14
  6. 6 CLE 10 PIT 17
  7. 7 CLE 10 PIT 20
  8. 8 CLE 10 PIT 23
  9. 9 CLE 0 PIT 18
  10. 10 CLE 10 PIT 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 34% of them, Steelers 66%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+4.8%
Browns by 9–1610.8%
Browns by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation1.4%
Steelers by 1–827.7%
Steelers by 9–1620.8%
Steelers by 17+16.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 10.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. Boswell, 34 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:29 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% PIT PIT: Turnover
2 Q1 6:19 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% CLE PIT: Punt
3 Q1 5:01 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% PIT PIT: Punt
4 Q2 13:29 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:52 The Steelers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedDelay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +15% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:23 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% PIT CLE: End of half
7 Q2 0:07 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CLE CLE: Turnover
8 Q3 5:48 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% PIT CLE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (CLE DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sione Takitaki (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 6% · Steelers 94%

Final margin
Steelers by 14
Luck in points
3.5 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Browns 34% · Steelers 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Browns · Steelers

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