luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Patriots at Bills, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Patriots 35–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Bills were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:06 left): Return touchdown by the Bills, worth 24 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

New England Patriots 23
Buffalo Bills 35

January 8, 2023 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −8

Luck index +11 Bills about even · −11 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 1, Bills win 9.

  1. 1 NE 33 BUF 26
  2. 2 NE 20 BUF 23
  3. 3 NE 20 BUF 26
  4. 4 NE 20 BUF 28
  5. 5 NE 19 BUF 31
  6. 6 NE 17 BUF 32
  7. 7 NE 41 BUF 59
  8. 8 NE 9 BUF 31
  9. 9 NE 7 BUF 34
  10. 10 NE 10 BUF 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 11% of them, Bills 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+1.0%
Patriots by 9–162.5%
Patriots by 1–86.7%
Level after regulation1.9%
Bills by 1–816.6%
Bills by 9–1621.3%
Bills by 17+50.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 11.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Return touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams +21% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:39 The Bills converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:26 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% NE BUF: Turnover
4 Q3 10:55 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +13% NE NE: Turnover
5 Q3 7:06 Return touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams +24% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:13 Chop Block on the Bills, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% NE NE: Punt
7 Q4 8:59 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +14% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:06 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% BUF NE: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Benford (BUF CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Von Miller (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Damar Hamlin (BUF SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jalen Mills (NE CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jonnu Smith (NE TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 1% · Bills 99%

Final margin
Bills by 12
Luck in points
0.6 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 11.4
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 11% · Bills 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Patriots · Bills

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