luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Panthers at Saints, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Panthers stole one. They beat the Saints 10–7, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 7.2 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Saints were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:24 left): W. Lutz had a 55-yard field goal blocked, worth 29 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 10
New Orleans Saints 7

January 8, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −3.5

Luck index +90 Panthers very lucky · −90 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Saints win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 26 NO 20
  2. 2 CAR 19 NO 22
  3. 3 CAR 17 NO 23
  4. 4 CAR 13 NO 23
  5. 5 CAR 12 NO 23
  6. 6 CAR 23 NO 38
  7. 7 CAR 10 NO 28
  8. 8 CAR 10 NO 30
  9. 9 CAR 6 NO 31
  10. 10 CAR 5 NO 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 10% of them, Saints 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.5%
Panthers by 9–162.1%
Panthers by 1–85.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Saints by 1–817.9%
Saints by 9–1621.3%
Saints by 17+50.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 15.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 44 yds missed · 83% expected
  • W. Lutz, 55 yds blocked · 65% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 42 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 7:21 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% CAR NO: Turnover
2 Q3 6:52 The Panthers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q4 14:19 Encroachment on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 15 flags in 2398 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +10% NO NO: Punt
4 Q4 12:39 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% CAR NO: Punt
5 Q4 2:00 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% CAR NO: Punt
6 Q4 1:47 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 40% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% NO CAR: Field goal
7 Q4 1:24 W. Lutz had a 55-yard field goal blockedKicks · 65% expected for him, 23 of 33 from 45+ before +29% CAR –
8 Q4 0:03 E. Pineiro made 42-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +15% CAR –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Burns (CAR DE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 1% · Saints 99%

Final margin
Panthers by 3
Luck in points
18.7 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 15.7
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 10% · Saints 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Panthers · Saints

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