luckadjusted

Week 18 2022 · January 8, 2023

Vikings at Bears, Week 18 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Bears 29–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:08 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 7, worth 17 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 29
Chicago Bears 13

January 8, 2023 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Vikings −6.5

Luck index +35 Vikings lucky · −35 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 6, Bears win 4.

  1. 1 MIN 42 CHI 17
  2. 2 MIN 24 CHI 6
  3. 3 MIN 23 CHI 9
  4. 4 MIN 30 CHI 20
  5. 5 MIN 20 CHI 14
  6. 6 MIN 16 CHI 14
  7. 7 MIN 20 CHI 23
  8. 8 MIN 34 CHI 41
  9. 9 MIN 15 CHI 27
  10. 10 MIN 13 CHI 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 65% of them, Bears 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+17.3%
Vikings by 9–1620.2%
Vikings by 1–826.0%
Level after regulation1.8%
Bears by 1–819.0%
Bears by 9–1610.7%
Bears by 17+5.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 5.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Joseph, 50 yds made · 66% expected
  • G. Joseph, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:08 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +17% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:12 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% MIN CHI: Punt
3 Q1 4:20 The Vikings fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CHI MIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:53 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% MIN CHI: Turnover
5 Q2 15:00 The Vikings converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 8:32 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% MIN CHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:01 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 0 yardsPre-snap flags +6% CHI CHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 15:00 G. Joseph made 50-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 14 of 25 from 45+ before +6% MIN MIN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Darnell Mooney (CHI WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Eddie Jackson (CHI SS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jaylon Jones (CHI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jack Sanborn (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kindle Vildor (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Michael Schofield (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Brian O'Neill (MIN T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Harrison Smith (MIN SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Blake Brandel (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Za'Darius Smith (MIN LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Booth (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Akayleb Evans (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 90% · Bears 10%

Final margin
Vikings by 16
Luck in points
10.3 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 65% · Bears 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2022 games · Vikings · Bears

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