luckadjusted

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Steelers at Falcons, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Falcons 19–16, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 5.4 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:00 left): Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 24 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 19
Atlanta Falcons 16

December 4, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −1

Luck index +60 Steelers lucky · −60 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 4, Falcons win 6.

  1. 1 PIT 27 ATL 7
  2. 2 PIT 22 ATL 10
  3. 3 PIT 21 ATL 14
  4. 4 PIT 10 ATL 7
  5. 5 PIT 14 ATL 16
  6. 6 PIT 13 ATL 17
  7. 7 PIT 10 ATL 17
  8. 8 PIT 20 ATL 30
  9. 9 PIT 3 ATL 17
  10. 10 PIT 10 ATL 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 40% of them, Falcons 60%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+6.1%
Steelers by 9–1613.2%
Steelers by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation2.4%
Falcons by 1–829.0%
Falcons by 9–1617.5%
Falcons by 17+12.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 8.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • M. Wright, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • Y. Koo, 50 yds made · 79% expected
  • Y. Koo, 51 yds made · 77% expected
  • M. Wright, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • M. Wright, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 28 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:54 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +10% PIT PIT: Field goal
2 Q1 4:07 The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PIT PIT: Field goal
3 Q2 13:39 M. Wright made 46-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 11 of 14 from 45+ before +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:26 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +12% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:30 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q4 7:41 The Falcons converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% ATL ATL: Field goal
7 Q4 7:00 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +24% PIT PIT: Punt
8 Q4 5:34 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% PIT ATL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyle Pitts (ATL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Casey Hayward (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ta'Quon Graham (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rashad Fenton (ATL CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Arnold Ebiketie (ATL LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Chris Boswell (PIT K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 19% · Falcons 81%

Final margin
Steelers by 3
Luck in points
11.2 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 40% · Falcons 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Steelers · Falcons

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