Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022
Chargers at Raiders, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?
The Raiders beat the Chargers 27–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Before kickoff the Raiders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:15 left): Return touchdown by the Chargers, worth 24 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 20 |
|---|---|
 Las Vegas Raiders | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Raiders about even · −10 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 1, Raiders win 9.
- 1 LAC 34 LV 27
- 2 LAC 20 LV 23
- 3 LAC 31 LV 37
- 4 LAC 17 LV 26
- 5 LAC 23 LV 34
- 6 LAC 7 LV 21
- 7 LAC 20 LV 37
- 8 LAC 13 LV 34
- 9 LAC 10 LV 36
- 10 LAC 13 LV 47
Your call
Did the Raiders earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 10% of them, Raiders 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 2.3% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 6.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 17.5% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 20.8% |
| Raiders by 17+ | 50.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Dicker, 37 yds made · 93% expected
- D. Carlson, 55 yds made · 71% expected
- C. Dicker, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- D. Carlson, 52 yds blocked · 75% expected
- C. Dicker, 52 yds missed · 72% expected
- D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 99% expected
Penalties: Chargers 4 for 20 yards, Raiders 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:21 | Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 5 yards | 0% LAC +0.2 pts |
| Q1 5:07 | Defensive Holding on the Chargers, 5 yards | +3% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:34 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% LV +0.8 pts |
| Q3 14:22 | Defensive Holding on the Raiders, 5 yards | +1% LAC +0.2 pts |
| Q3 10:53 | Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LAC 0.0 pts |
| Q4 12:19 | Illegal Contact on the Raiders (Tre'von Moehrig), 5 yards | 0% LAC +0.2 pts |
| Q4 8:34 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV 0.0 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Raiders’ chance of winning
As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:49 | The Raiders fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% LAC | LV: Opp touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:16 | The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +11% LV | LAC: Opp touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:15 | The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the ChargersSpecial teams | +24% LAC | LV: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 9:29 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +7% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:09 | D. Carlson had a 52-yard field goal blockedKicks · 75% expected for him, 31 of 38 from 45+ before | +11% LAC | LV: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 14:50 | The Chargers fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% LV | LAC: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 12:54 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +8% LAC | LAC: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q3 11:30 | C. Dicker missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before | +8% LV | LAC: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Divine Deablo (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Hunter Renfrow (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Anthony Averett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Mike Williams (LAC WR), out · 0.8 pts
- Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out · 0.8 pts
- Corey Linsley (LAC C), out · 0.7 pts
- J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 2% · Raiders 98%
- Final margin
- Raiders by 7
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Raiders by 12.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 10% · Raiders 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · 
Chargers · 
Raiders
More from Week 13 2022
- Bills at Patriots BUF 24–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Browns at Texans CLE 27–14 · replay 84% for the winner
- Broncos at Ravens BAL 10–9 · replay 49% for the winner
- Packers at Bears GB 28–19 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jaguars at Lions DET 40–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Jets at Vikings MIN 27–22 · replay 74% for the winner
- Steelers at Falcons PIT 19–16 · replay 51% for the winner
- Titans at Eagles PHI 35–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Commanders at Giants NYG 20–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers SF 33–17 · replay 75% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams SEA 27–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bengals CIN 27–24 · replay 65% for the winner
- Colts at Cowboys DAL 54–19 · replay 92% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers TB 17–16 · replay 14% for the winner