2022 season · final

Las Vegas Raiders, 2022: game by game

The Raiders went 6–11 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.3 wins. Luck cost them 1.3: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–9.

Every game

How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Chargers	L 19–24	8%	−8
Week 2	vs Cardinals	L 23–29	31%	−31
Week 3	@ Titans	L 22–24	46%	−46
Week 4	vs Broncos	W 32–23	91%	+9
Week 5	@ Chiefs	L 29–30	23%	−23
Week 7	vs Texans	W 38–20	88%	+12
Week 8	@ Saints	L 0–24	3%	−3
Week 9	@ Jaguars	L 20–27	5%	−5
Week 10	vs Colts	L 20–25	35%	−35
Week 11	@ Broncos	W 22–16	55%	+45
Week 12	@ Seahawks	W 40–34	85%	+15
Week 13	vs Chargers	W 27–20	90%	+10
Week 14	@ Rams	L 16–17	69%	−69
Week 15	vs Patriots	W 30–24	28%	+72
Week 16	@ Steelers	L 10–13	21%	−21
Week 17	vs 49ers	L 34–37	48%	−48
Week 18	vs Chiefs	L 13–31	1%	−1

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −8 @ LAC

Wk 2 −31 vs ARI

Wk 3 −46 @ TEN

Wk 4 +9 vs DEN

Wk 5 −23 @ KC

Wk 7 +12 vs HOU

Wk 8 −3 @ NO

Wk 9 −5 @ JAX

Wk 10 −35 vs IND

Wk 11 +45 @ DEN

Wk 12 +15 @ SEA

Wk 13 +10 vs LAC

Wk 14 −69 @ LA

Wk 15 +72 vs NE

Wk 16 −21 @ PIT

Wk 17 −48 vs SF

Wk 18 −1 vs KC

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.92	+18.7
Kicks	+0.62	+29.2
3rd & 4th downs	+0.03	+4.8
Rest	−0.03	−1.2
Drops	−0.31	+6.8
Judgment calls	−0.46	−10.9