2022 season · final

Las Vegas Raiders, 2022: game by game

The Raiders went 6–11 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.0 wins. Luck cost them 2.0: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–9.

Every game

How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Chargers	L 19–24	12%	−12
Week 2	vs Cardinals	L 23–29	34%	−34
Week 3	@ Titans	L 22–24	46%	−46
Week 4	vs Broncos	W 32–23	90%	+10
Week 5	@ Chiefs	L 29–30	41%	−41
Week 7	vs Texans	W 38–20	88%	+12
Week 8	@ Saints	L 0–24	4%	−4
Week 9	@ Jaguars	L 20–27	10%	−10
Week 10	vs Colts	L 20–25	52%	−52
Week 11	@ Broncos	W 22–16	55%	+45
Week 12	@ Seahawks	W 40–34	86%	+14
Week 13	vs Chargers	W 27–20	95%	+5
Week 14	@ Rams	L 16–17	81%	−81
Week 15	vs Patriots	W 30–24	41%	+59
Week 16	@ Steelers	L 10–13	21%	−21
Week 17	vs 49ers	L 34–37	48%	−48
Week 18	vs Chiefs	L 13–31	2%	−2

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −12 @ LAC

Wk 2 −34 vs ARI

Wk 3 −46 @ TEN

Wk 4 +10 vs DEN

Wk 5 −41 @ KC

Wk 7 +12 vs HOU

Wk 8 −4 @ NO

Wk 9 −10 @ JAX

Wk 10 −52 vs IND

Wk 11 +45 @ DEN

Wk 12 +14 @ SEA

Wk 13 +5 vs LAC

Wk 14 −81 @ LA

Wk 15 +59 vs NE

Wk 16 −21 @ PIT

Wk 17 −48 vs SF

Wk 18 −2 vs KC

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Kicks	+29.0	+1.71
Fumble bounces	+14.2	+0.83
3rd & 4th downs	+6.4	+0.38
Rest	−1.2	−0.07
Injuries	−1.4	−0.08
Drops	−2.3	−0.13
Judgment calls	−23.1	−1.36