Referee calls · 2019–2026
Do refs favor the Raiders?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.25 points a game to the Raiders since 2019, 21st of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −1.41 points a game over 1 game, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
Call luck, season by season
Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Raiders minus the calls that hurt them.
Biggest calls for the Raiders
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 33 yards · 2021 Week 12 · 43 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 4 · 42 pts of win probability
- Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 18 · 32 pts of win probability
- Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers, 15 yards · 2022 Week 16 · 28 pts of win probability
- Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 10 · 27 pts of win probability
Biggest calls against
- Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 15 · 58 pts of win probability
- Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Arden Key), 15 yards · 2020 Week 16 · 31 pts of win probability
- Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Amik Robertson), 12 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 14 · 31 pts of win probability
- Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Maurice Hurst Jr.), 15 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 5 · 28 pts of win probability
- Disqualification on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 15 yards · 2019 Week 17 · 25 pts of win probability
Questions
Do refs favor the Raiders?
No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth −0.25 points a game to the Raiders since 2019, 21st of 32 teams.
What about the playoffs?
In the playoffs: −1.41 points a game over 1 game, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.
How is this measured?
Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.
Is it more than chance?
Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.
All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Las Vegas Raiders, every season