luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 18 2021 · January 9, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Raiders, Week 18 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Chargers 35–32, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 6:02 left): the Chargers converted 4th & 9, worth 40 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Chargers 32
Las Vegas Raiders 35

January 9, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3.5

Luck index +40 Raiders lucky · −40 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 4, Raiders win 6.

  1. 1 LAC 37 LV 17
  2. 2 LAC 40 LV 27
  3. 3 LAC 28 LV 22
  4. 4 LAC 30 LV 28
  5. 5 LAC 17 LV 18
  6. 6 LAC 23 LV 27
  7. 7 LAC 27 LV 33
  8. 8 LAC 20 LV 29
  9. 9 LAC 26 LV 41
  10. 10 LAC 10 LV 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 40% of them, Raiders 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+7.1%
Chargers by 9–1612.1%
Chargers by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation2.8%
Raiders by 1–828.4%
Raiders by 9–1616.0%
Raiders by 17+13.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.6 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 3, without the luck Chargers by 10.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 51 yds missed · 71% expected
  • D. Carlson, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 52 yds made · 72% expected
  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 10 for 108 yards, Raiders 4 for 38 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:27 Defensive Holding on the Chargers, 4 yards +2% LV +0.6 pts
Q1 1:28 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +3% LV +1.5 pts
Q1 0:58 Illegal Contact on the Raiders, 5 yards +5% LAC +2.2 pts
Q2 11:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Kenneth Murray), 20 yards +6% LV +2.2 pts
Q2 1:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Kyler Fackrell), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.5 pts
Q2 1:13 Intentional Grounding on the Raiders (Derek Carr), 13 yards +4% LAC +1.2 pts
Q2 0:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 41 yards +16% LV +3.9 pts
Q2 0:19 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC 0.0 pts
Q3 6:43 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 15 yards +5% LAC +1.4 pts
Q3 3:33 Defensive Holding on the Chargers, 5 yards +1% LV +0.3 pts
Q3 0:34 Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Uchenna Nwosu), 3 yards +2% LV +1.8 pts
Q4 2:16 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +5% LV +0.9 pts
Q4 1:12 Defensive Holding on the Raiders, 5 yards +5% LAC +1.4 pts
OT 7:09 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +32% LV +3.6 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 41 yardsJudgment calls +16% LV LV: Touchdown
2 OT 7:09 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +32% LV LV: Field goal
3 OT 6:07 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +12% LV LAC: Field goal
4 OT 6:02 The Chargers converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +40% LAC LAC: Field goal
5 OT 4:35 D. Hopkins made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +12% LV –
6 OT 2:24 The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +19% LV LV: Field goal
7 OT 0:38 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +21% LV LV: Field goal
8 OT 0:02 D. Carlson made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 20 of 25 from 45+ before +19% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Johnathan Abram (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 94% · Raiders 6%

Final margin
Raiders by 3
Luck in points
13.6 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 40% · Raiders 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2021 games · Chargers · Raiders

More from Week 18 2021