luckadjusted

Week 18 2021 · January 9, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Raiders, Week 18 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Chargers 35–32, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 8.6 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 6:02 left): the Chargers converted 4th & 9, worth 56 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Chargers 32
Las Vegas Raiders 35

January 9, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3.5

Luck index +42 Raiders lucky · −42 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 4, Raiders win 6.

  1. 1 LAC 31 LV 13
  2. 2 LAC 28 LV 17
  3. 3 LAC 34 LV 28
  4. 4 LAC 24 LV 22
  5. 5 LAC 10 LV 12
  6. 6 LAC 17 LV 22
  7. 7 LAC 16 LV 24
  8. 8 LAC 17 LV 30
  9. 9 LAC 14 LV 33
  10. 10 LAC 19 LV 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 42% of them, Raiders 58%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+6.6%
Chargers by 9–1613.0%
Chargers by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation3.4%
Raiders by 1–826.7%
Raiders by 9–1615.6%
Raiders by 17+14.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 14.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 51 yds missed · 72% expected
  • D. Carlson, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 52 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 41 yardsJudgment calls +16% LV LV: Touchdown
2 QOT 7:14 D. Carlson made 40-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +33% LAC LV: Field goal
3 QOT 7:09 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +32% LV LV: Field goal
4 QOT 6:02 The Chargers converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +56% LAC LAC: Field goal
5 QOT 4:35 D. Hopkins made 41-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +25% LV –
6 QOT 2:24 The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +19% LV LV: Field goal
7 QOT 0:38 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +21% LV LV: Field goal
8 QOT 0:02 D. Carlson made 47-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 20 of 25 from 45+ before +19% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Johnathan Abram (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 95% · Raiders 5%

Final margin
Raiders by 3
Luck in points
17.2 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 14.2
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 42% · Raiders 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2021 games · Chargers · Raiders

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