luckadjusted

Week 18 2021 · January 9, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Bills, Week 18 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 27–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.6 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Bills were 88% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:59 left): the Jets converted 4th & 5, worth 16 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 10
Buffalo Bills 27

January 9, 2022 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −16

Luck index 0 Bills about even · 0 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 10 BUF 16
  2. 2 NYJ 13 BUF 25
  3. 3 NYJ 20 BUF 36
  4. 4 NYJ 6 BUF 25
  5. 5 NYJ 6 BUF 28
  6. 6 NYJ 9 BUF 33
  7. 7 NYJ 10 BUF 37
  8. 8 NYJ 12 BUF 43
  9. 9 NYJ 10 BUF 47
  10. 10 NYJ 13 BUF 57

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 0% of them, Bills 100%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.0%
Jets by 9–160.1%
Jets by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.1%
Bills by 1–81.8%
Bills by 9–167.1%
Bills by 17+90.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 16.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 41 yds made · 78% expected
  • T. Bass, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 49 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:51 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +10% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 3:59 The Jets converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +16% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Bryce Hall), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1714 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% BUF BUF: Field goal
4 Q2 0:04 T. Bass made 21-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +11% NYJ BUF: Punt
5 Q3 9:15 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q3 4:40 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% BUF NYJ: Field goal
7 Q3 4:00 E. Pineiro made 49-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 6 of 8 from 45+ before +7% NYJ NYJ: Punt
8 Q3 2:44 The Bills converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% BUF BUF: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre'Davious White (BUF CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Emmanuel Sanders (BUF WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Ike Boettger (BUF G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • George Fant (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Elijah Moore (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Connor McGovern (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Griffin (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 17
Luck in points
0.3 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 16.7
Replay with same day's form
Jets 0% · Bills 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2021 games · Jets · Bills

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