luckadjusted

Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024

Browns at Raiders, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Browns 20–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): Return touchdown by the Browns, worth 47 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 16
Las Vegas Raiders 20

September 29, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +35 Raiders lucky · −35 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 4, Raiders win 6.

  1. 1 CLE 24 LV 7
  2. 2 CLE 20 LV 10
  3. 3 CLE 19 LV 13
  4. 4 CLE 13 LV 10
  5. 5 CLE 14 LV 16
  6. 6 CLE 20 LV 24
  7. 7 CLE 3 LV 10
  8. 8 CLE 20 LV 31
  9. 9 CLE 13 LV 28
  10. 10 CLE 7 LV 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 35% of them, Raiders 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+3.6%
Browns by 9–1610.1%
Browns by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Raiders by 1–829.1%
Raiders by 9–1621.4%
Raiders by 17+14.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 7.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 56 yds made · 66% expected
  • D. Carlson, 52 yds made · 74% expected
  • D. Carlson, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 13:43 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Alex Wright), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1173 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +11% LV LV: Field goal
2 Q3 8:09 The Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% LV CLE: Punt
3 Q3 6:09 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q4 15:00 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +47% CLE LV: Punt
5 Q4 10:28 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +42% LV LV: Punt
6 Q4 6:35 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedA. Mattison dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 64 catchable balls before this +11% CLE LV: Punt
7 Q4 2:00 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:41 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +39% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Maxx Crosby (LV DE), out · 1.5 pts
  • Davante Adams (LV WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Epps (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Malcolm Koonce (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Wypler (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 34% · Raiders 66%

Final margin
Raiders by 4
Luck in points
3.4 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Browns 35% · Raiders 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Browns · Raiders

More from Week 4 2024