Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024
Browns at Raiders, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?
The Raiders beat the Browns 20–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Browns.
An off day for the Browns: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 10:28 left): Offensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the play, worth 42 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 16 |
|---|---|
 Las Vegas Raiders | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Raiders about even · −24 Browns
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 2, Raiders win 8.
- 1 CLE 27 LV 16
- 2 CLE 20 LV 17
- 3 CLE 10 LV 12
- 4 CLE 7 LV 10
- 5 CLE 10 LV 17
- 6 CLE 14 LV 23
- 7 CLE 14 LV 26
- 8 CLE 7 LV 22
- 9 CLE 0 LV 19
- 10 CLE 3 LV 26
Your call
Did the Raiders earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Browns
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns offenseEPA per play gained | −0.03 | +0.01 | worse by 0.04 |
| Browns defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.01 | better by 0.01 |
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.00 | +0.01 | worse by 0.01 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.03 | +0.06 | better by 0.09 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 24% of them, Raiders 76%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 2.2% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 14.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 28.0% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 23.3% |
| Raiders by 17+ | 21.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Hopkins, 56 yds made · 68% expected
- D. Carlson, 52 yds made · 74% expected
- D. Carlson, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- Extra point missed · 96% expected
Penalties: Browns 5 for 38 yards, Raiders 6 for 49 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:29 | False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.7 pts |
| Q1 12:06 | Roughing the Passer on the Raiders, 15 yards | +5% CLE +1.8 pts |
| Q1 5:38 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Tommy Eichenberg), 10 yards | +2% CLE +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:24 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 8 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CLE +2.0 pts |
| Q1 4:15 | Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Raiders (Luke Masterson), 5 yards | +1% CLE +0.5 pts |
| Q2 4:57 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards | +5% CLE +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:20 | False Start on the Raiders, 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% CLE +0.1 pts |
| Q3 13:43 | Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Alex Wright), 15 yards | +11% LV +2.0 pts |
| Q3 7:54 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 4 yards, wiping out the play | +1% CLE 0.0 pts |
| Q3 4:13 | Illegal Shift on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% LV +1.4 pts |
| Q4 10:28 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +42% LV +7.0 pts |
Browns penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Raiders’ chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 13:43 | Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Alex Wright), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1173 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 | +11% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 8:09 | The Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +11% LV | CLE: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 6:09 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +9% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 15:00 | The Raiders fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams | +29% CLE | LV: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 10:28 | The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +42% LV | LV: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 6:35 | A. Mattison dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 64 catchable balls before this | +8% CLE | LV: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 2:00 | The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% CLE | CLE: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:41 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +37% LV | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Maxx Crosby (LV DE), out · 1.5 pts
- Davante Adams (LV WR), out · 1.4 pts
- Divine Deablo (LV LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Michael Mayer (LV TE), out · 0.4 pts
- Marcus Epps (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Malcolm Koonce (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.7 pts
- Juan Thornhill (CLE FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Luke Wypler (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 15% · Raiders 85%
- Final margin
- Raiders by 4
- Luck in points
- 4.7 for the Browns
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Raiders by 8.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 24% · Raiders 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · 
Browns · 
Raiders
More from Week 4 2024
- Cowboys at Giants DAL 20–15 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bengals at Panthers CIN 34–24 · replay 78% for the winner
- Broncos at Jets DEN 10–9 · replay 32% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 24–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Rams at Bears CHI 24–18 · replay 44% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers MIN 31–29 · replay 74% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons ATL 26–24 · replay 31% for the winner
- Eagles at Buccaneers TB 33–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Steelers at Colts IND 27–24 · replay 66% for the winner
- Patriots at 49ers SF 30–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Commanders at Cardinals WAS 42–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 17–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bills at Ravens BAL 35–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Titans at Dolphins TEN 31–12 · replay 51% for the winner
- Seahawks at Lions DET 42–29 · replay 89% for the winner