luckadjusted

Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024

Steelers at Colts, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Steelers 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.6 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:07 left): the Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 22, worth 9 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Indianapolis Colts 27

September 29, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −2.5

Luck index +34 Colts lucky · −34 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 3, Colts win 7.

  1. 1 PIT 32 IND 14
  2. 2 PIT 23 IND 13
  3. 3 PIT 23 IND 20
  4. 4 PIT 28 IND 30
  5. 5 PIT 6 IND 10
  6. 6 PIT 23 IND 30
  7. 7 PIT 20 IND 30
  8. 8 PIT 31 IND 44
  9. 9 PIT 13 IND 31
  10. 10 PIT 10 IND 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 34% of them, Colts 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+5.4%
Steelers by 9–1610.0%
Steelers by 1–817.5%
Level after regulation2.1%
Colts by 1–826.7%
Colts by 9–1620.1%
Colts by 17+18.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 2.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 80% expected
  • M. Gay, 54 yds missed · 69% expected
  • M. Gay, 35 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:45 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Isaiah Land), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 76 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +8% PIT PIT: Punt
2 Q3 7:59 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% IND PIT: Touchdown
3 Q3 2:41 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q4 5:14 The Steelers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:45 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:52 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +7% PIT IND: Punt
7 Q4 1:43 The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% PIT PIT: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:07 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +9% IND PIT: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Samson Ebukam (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
  • MyCole Pruitt (PIT TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 43% · Colts 57%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
0.2 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 34% · Colts 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Steelers · Colts

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