Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024
Eagles at Buccaneers, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Eagles 33–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Eagles: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 16 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Buccaneers about even · −6 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Buccaneers win 9.
- 1 PHI 19 TB 13
- 2 PHI 10 TB 12
- 3 PHI 10 TB 17
- 4 PHI 20 TB 29
- 5 PHI 14 TB 27
- 6 PHI 17 TB 33
- 7 PHI 16 TB 34
- 8 PHI 7 TB 28
- 9 PHI 7 TB 33
- 10 PHI 17 TB 48
Your call
Did the Buccaneers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Eagles
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.14 | worse by 0.10 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.35 | +0.10 | worse by 0.25 |
| Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.35 | +0.06 | better by 0.29 |
| Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.10 | better by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 6% of them, Buccaneers 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 4.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 10.7% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 22.0% |
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 61.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. McLaughlin, 21 yds made · 99% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 67% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Eagles 5 for 41 yards, Buccaneers 3 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:11 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TB +0.4 pts |
| Q1 3:25 | Encroachment on the Eagles (Moro Ojomo), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:06 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Reed Blankenship), 16 yards | +1% TB +2.4 pts |
| Q2 10:21 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:09 | Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Vita Vea), 5 yards | 0% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:07 | Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 5 yards | +1% TB +2.1 pts |
| Q4 14:12 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% PHI +2.1 pts |
| Q4 10:40 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% TB +1.3 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Buccaneers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:16 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +4% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:03 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +4% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:16 | The Eagles fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% TB | PHI: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 2:00 | The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +3% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 11:48 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 10:28 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +3% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 6:49 | The Buccaneers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time | +3% PHI | TB: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 2:44 | The Eagles fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% TB | PHI: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB FS), out · 0.9 pts
- Luke Goedeke (TB G), out · 0.4 pts
- Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
- Jake Camarda (TB P), out · 0.3 pts
- Evan Deckers (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- A.J. Brown (PHI WR), out · 1.7 pts
- DeVonta Smith (PHI WR), out · 1.5 pts
- James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 1% · Buccaneers 99%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 17
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for the Buccaneers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 13.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 6% · Buccaneers 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · 
Eagles · 
Buccaneers
More from Week 4 2024
- Cowboys at Giants DAL 20–15 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bengals at Panthers CIN 34–24 · replay 78% for the winner
- Broncos at Jets DEN 10–9 · replay 32% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 24–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Rams at Bears CHI 24–18 · replay 44% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers MIN 31–29 · replay 74% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons ATL 26–24 · replay 31% for the winner
- Steelers at Colts IND 27–24 · replay 66% for the winner
- Patriots at 49ers SF 30–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Commanders at Cardinals WAS 42–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Browns at Raiders LV 20–16 · replay 76% for the winner
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 17–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bills at Ravens BAL 35–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Titans at Dolphins TEN 31–12 · replay 51% for the winner
- Seahawks at Lions DET 42–29 · replay 89% for the winner