luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024

Jaguars at Texans, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 24–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Texans were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:52 left): Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Houston Texans 24

September 29, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −5.5

Luck index +12 Texans about even · −12 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Texans win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 20 HOU 13
  2. 2 JAX 21 HOU 23
  3. 3 JAX 14 HOU 19
  4. 4 JAX 13 HOU 20
  5. 5 JAX 17 HOU 27
  6. 6 JAX 10 HOU 23
  7. 7 JAX 28 HOU 43
  8. 8 JAX 10 HOU 28
  9. 9 JAX 14 HOU 37
  10. 10 JAX 3 HOU 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 12% of them, Texans 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.9%
Jaguars by 9–162.6%
Jaguars by 1–87.4%
Level after regulation2.1%
Texans by 1–818.4%
Texans by 9–1621.6%
Texans by 17+47.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Texans by 4, without the luck Texans by 7.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Little, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 6 for 44 yards, Texans 12 for 93 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:23 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars (Ventrell Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q1 4:23 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 14:06 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 8:46 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards +6% HOU +1.7 pts
Q2 8:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards +3% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 3:06 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 1:15 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Dare Ogunbowale), 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 1:02 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% JAX +1.3 pts
Q3 14:01 Encroachment on the Texans (Tim Settle), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 13:21 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jaguars (Brian Thomas), 15 yards +5% HOU +1.4 pts
Q4 13:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q4 12:31 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +10% JAX +1.7 pts
Q4 9:52 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +15% JAX +2.0 pts
Q4 8:31 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Folorunso Fatukasi), 5 yards +6% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 5:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Steven Sims), 13 yards +3% JAX +1.2 pts
Q4 4:16 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +4% JAX +1.2 pts
Q4 2:54 Illegal Contact on the Jaguars, 5 yards +7% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 0:18 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Yasir Abdullah), 9 yards +10% HOU +0.8 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:56 The Texans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% JAX HOU: Touchdown
2 Q4 15:00 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +13% HOU JAX: Punt
3 Q4 12:31 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 17 flags in 4260 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +10% JAX JAX: Punt
4 Q4 11:21 The Texans converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +14% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q4 9:52 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% JAX JAX: Punt
6 Q4 5:45 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +10% JAX JAX: Punt
7 Q4 3:08 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% HOU JAX: Punt
8 Q4 0:18 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Yasir Abdullah), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 144 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +10% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Evan Engram (JAX TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Devin Lloyd (JAX LB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 7% · Texans 93%

Final margin
Texans by 4
Luck in points
3.4 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 12% · Texans 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Jaguars · Texans

More from Week 4 2024