luckadjusted

Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024

Jaguars at Texans, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 24–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.0 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Texans were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:21 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 18, worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Houston Texans 24

September 29, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −5.5

Luck index +24 Texans about even · −24 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 2, Texans win 8.

  1. 1 JAX 28 HOU 16
  2. 2 JAX 17 HOU 14
  3. 3 JAX 19 HOU 21
  4. 4 JAX 21 HOU 26
  5. 5 JAX 3 HOU 10
  6. 6 JAX 24 HOU 34
  7. 7 JAX 14 HOU 27
  8. 8 JAX 14 HOU 31
  9. 9 JAX 10 HOU 31
  10. 10 JAX 6 HOU 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 24% of them, Texans 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+3.1%
Jaguars by 9–167.3%
Jaguars by 1–813.1%
Level after regulation3.5%
Texans by 1–825.7%
Texans by 9–1621.9%
Texans by 17+25.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 9.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Little, 52 yds made · 72% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:56 The Texans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% JAX HOU: Touchdown
2 Q3 1:54 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +16% JAX JAX: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 15:00 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +14% HOU JAX: Punt
4 Q4 12:31 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 17 flags in 4260 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +10% JAX JAX: Punt
5 Q4 11:21 The Texans converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +18% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q4 9:52 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% JAX JAX: Punt
7 Q4 5:45 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% JAX JAX: Punt
8 Q4 0:18 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Yasir Abdullah), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 144 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +10% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Evan Engram (JAX TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Devin Lloyd (JAX LB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 6% · Texans 94%

Final margin
Texans by 4
Luck in points
5.0 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 24% · Texans 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Jaguars · Texans

More from Week 4 2024