Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bears vs Raiders, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?
The Raiders beat the Bears 24–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.5 points to the Bears.
An off day for the Bears: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bears were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:26 left): Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Maurice Hurst Jr.), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 28 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 21 |
|---|---|
 Oakland Raiders | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Raiders about even · −13 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 1, Raiders win 9.
- 1 CHI 24 OAK 16
- 2 CHI 15 OAK 17
- 3 CHI 17 OAK 21
- 4 CHI 20 OAK 27
- 5 CHI 13 OAK 23
- 6 CHI 10 OAK 23
- 7 CHI 6 OAK 22
- 8 CHI 0 OAK 20
- 9 CHI 3 OAK 26
- 10 CHI 10 OAK 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bears
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
51 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.12 | worse by 0.01 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.02 | worse by 0.20 |
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.13 | better by 0.10 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.17 | better by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 13% of them, Raiders 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 2.6% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 8.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 24.3% |
| Raiders by 17+ | 41.2% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Raiders by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 10.1.
When it happened
Raiders’ chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:03 | The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +10% CHI | OAK: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 5:26 | The Bears converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +10% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 13:58 | The Raiders fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% CHI | OAK: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 11:26 | Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Maurice Hurst Jr.), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 156 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 | +28% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 5:48 | The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +10% OAK | OAK: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 4:29 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +11% OAK | OAK: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:57 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Eddie Goldman), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 156 snaps before, position avg 1 per 411 | +20% OAK | OAK: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +11% OAK | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tyrell Williams (OAK WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Clelin Ferrell (OAK DE), out · 0.5 pts
- Brandon Parker (OAK T), out · 0.5 pts
- Jordan Devey (OAK C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Taylor Gabriel (CHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 14% · Raiders 86%
- Final margin
- Raiders by 3
- Luck in points
- 7.1 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Raiders by 10.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 13% · Raiders 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · 
Bears · 
Raiders
More from Week 5 2019
- Rams at Seahawks SEA 30–29 · replay 43% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bengals ARI 26–23 · replay 75% for the winner
- Falcons at Texans HOU 53–32 · replay 63% for the winner
- Ravens at Steelers BAL 26–23 · replay 72% for the winner
- Bills at Titans BUF 14–7 · replay 70% for the winner
- Jaguars at Panthers CAR 34–27 · replay 41% for the winner
- Vikings at Giants MIN 28–10 · replay 49% for the winner
- Patriots at Washington NE 33–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jets at Eagles PHI 31–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints NO 31–24 · replay 85% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers DEN 20–13 · replay 36% for the winner
- Packers at Cowboys GB 34–24 · replay 7% for the winner
- Colts at Chiefs IND 19–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Browns at 49ers SF 31–3 · replay 96% for the winner