luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Chiefs, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Chiefs 19–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Chiefs: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:43 left): the Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 23 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 19
Kansas City Chiefs 13

October 6, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −10.5

Luck index +17 Colts about even · −17 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 8, Chiefs win 2.

  1. 1 IND 56 KC 27
  2. 2 IND 45 KC 24
  3. 3 IND 38 KC 20
  4. 4 IND 37 KC 24
  5. 5 IND 30 KC 20
  6. 6 IND 31 KC 24
  7. 7 IND 24 KC 20
  8. 8 IND 26 KC 24
  9. 9 IND 27 KC 30
  10. 10 IND 20 KC 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Chiefs

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.

58 points apart for the Chiefs: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Colts offenseEPA per play gained +0.09 +0.16 worse by 0.07
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.14 better by 0.18
Chiefs offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.30 worse by 0.34
Chiefs defenseEPA per play allowed +0.09 +0.15 better by 0.05

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 83% of them, Chiefs 17%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+34.9%
Colts by 9–1622.7%
Colts by 1–824.8%
Level after regulation1.2%
Chiefs by 1–810.0%
Chiefs by 9–165.0%
Chiefs by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 0.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • H. Butker, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:37 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% KC KC: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:19 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +14% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Bashaud Breeland), 53 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 277 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +12% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q3 14:54 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +8% KC KC: Punt
5 Q3 8:43 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs, 15 yardsJudgment calls +23% IND KC: Punt
6 Q4 15:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (T.Y. Hilton), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 154 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +12% KC KC: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 11:15 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% IND IND: Field goal
8 Q4 5:06 The Chiefs were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% IND KC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyreek Hill (KC WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Eric Fisher (KC T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Alex Okafor (KC DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Malik Hooker (IND FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Clayton Geathers (IND SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 65% · Chiefs 35%

Final margin
Colts by 6
Luck in points
5.7 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Colts 83% · Chiefs 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Colts · Chiefs

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