luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Bengals, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Bengals 26–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.5 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): Z. Gonzalez made 31-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 26
Cincinnati Bengals 23

October 6, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3

Luck index +25 Cardinals about even · −25 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 8, Bengals win 2.

  1. 1 ARI 31 CIN 3
  2. 2 ARI 31 CIN 10
  3. 3 ARI 37 CIN 20
  4. 4 ARI 36 CIN 23
  5. 5 ARI 17 CIN 7
  6. 6 ARI 24 CIN 17
  7. 7 ARI 20 CIN 16
  8. 8 ARI 12 CIN 10
  9. 9 ARI 24 CIN 27
  10. 10 ARI 16 CIN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 75% of them, Bengals 25%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+24.3%
Cardinals by 9–1621.7%
Cardinals by 1–826.5%
Level after regulation3.5%
Bengals by 1–814.8%
Bengals by 9–166.3%
Bengals by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 9.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 37 yds missed · 90% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Bullock, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Bullock, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:46 The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:00 Z. Gonzalez missed 37-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +7% CIN ARI: Field goal
3 Q2 7:55 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% ARI ARI: Field goal
4 Q2 3:27 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% CIN CIN: Field goal
5 Q3 14:18 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% CIN CIN: Field goal
6 Q3 3:24 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% ARI ARI: Field goal
7 Q3 1:05 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% ARI ARI: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 Z. Gonzalez made 31-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +16% ARI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cordy Glenn (CIN T), out · 0.9 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Kirk (ARI WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Damiere Byrd (ARI WR), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 92% · Bengals 8%

Final margin
Cardinals by 3
Luck in points
6.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 9.9
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 75% · Bengals 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Cardinals · Bengals

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