luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Titans, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Titans 14–7 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Titans.

An off day for the Titans: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bills they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Titans were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:49 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 3, worth 19 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 14
Tennessee Titans 7

October 6, 2019 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3.5

Luck index +30 Bills lucky · −30 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 7, Titans win 3.

  1. 1 BUF 32 TEN 6
  2. 2 BUF 33 TEN 13
  3. 3 BUF 26 TEN 10
  4. 4 BUF 17 TEN 3
  5. 5 BUF 22 TEN 13
  6. 6 BUF 16 TEN 10
  7. 7 BUF 16 TEN 13
  8. 8 BUF 34 TEN 37
  9. 9 BUF 20 TEN 30
  10. 10 BUF 18 TEN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Titans

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bills they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%.

30 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bills offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.07 worse by 0.11
Bills defenseEPA per play allowed −0.08 +0.05 better by 0.14
Titans offenseEPA per play gained −0.08 +0.07 worse by 0.16
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.08 better by 0.12

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 70% of them, Titans 30%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+24.8%
Bills by 9–1619.9%
Bills by 1–824.3%
Level after regulation3.6%
Titans by 1–814.1%
Titans by 9–168.6%
Titans by 17+4.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 4.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 50 yds missed · 68% expected
  • C. Santos, 36 yds missed · 90% expected
  • C. Santos, 33 yds blocked · 93% expected
  • C. Santos, 53 yds missed · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:59 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% BUF BUF: Punt
2 Q1 3:16 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +9% TEN BUF: Punt
3 Q1 0:36 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% BUF TEN: Missed field goal
4 Q3 10:42 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% TEN BUF: Punt
5 Q3 7:05 The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 15:00 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
7 Q4 12:34 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedIllegal Forward Pass on the Titans (Marcus Mariota), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 257 snaps before, position avg 1 per 751 +9% BUF TEN: Missed field goal
8 Q4 9:49 The Bills converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +19% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Succop (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Foster (BUF WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ty Nsekhe (BUF T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Devin Singletary (BUF RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 25% · Titans 75%

Final margin
Bills by 7
Luck in points
11.0 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Bills 70% · Titans 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Bills · Titans

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