luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Cowboys, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Packers stole one. They beat the Cowboys 34–24, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 6.9 points to the Packers.

The Packers won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites.

Final

Green Bay Packers 34
Dallas Cowboys 24

October 6, 2019 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +93 Packers very lucky · −93 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 GB 51 DAL 44
  2. 2 GB 35 DAL 38
  3. 3 GB 37 DAL 44
  4. 4 GB 41 DAL 51
  5. 5 GB 17 DAL 31
  6. 6 GB 48 DAL 65
  7. 7 GB 34 DAL 55
  8. 8 GB 45 DAL 71
  9. 9 GB 31 DAL 61
  10. 10 GB 16 DAL 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Packers won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

46 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Packers offenseEPA per play gained +0.29 +0.11 better by 0.19
Packers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.13 better by 0.06
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.16 worse by 0.09
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed +0.29 +0.08 worse by 0.22

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 7% of them, Cowboys 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+0.6%
Packers by 9–161.6%
Packers by 1–84.8%
Level after regulation0.8%
Cowboys by 1–811.2%
Cowboys by 9–1617.6%
Cowboys by 17+63.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 5.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Maher, 54 yds missed · 67% expected
  • B. Maher, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Crosby, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. Maher, 33 yds missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:52 False Start on the Packers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% DAL DAL: Turnover
2 Q1 13:30 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% DAL DAL: Turnover
3 Q1 6:09 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% GB DAL: Punt
4 Q2 9:08 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +3% GB DAL: Punt
5 Q2 2:23 M. Crosby made 20-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +3% DAL GB: Punt
6 Q2 0:45 B. Maher missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before +3% GB DAL: End of half
7 Q4 14:03 Illegal Use of Hands on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 231 snaps before, position avg 1 per 411 +3% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:45 Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 72 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +3% DAL DAL: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Antwaun Woods (DAL NT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Davante Adams (GB WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Jason Spriggs (GB T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lane Taylor (GB G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Equanimeous St. Brown (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jamaal Williams (GB RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Raven Greene (GB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 75% · Cowboys 25%

Final margin
Packers by 10
Luck in points
4.6 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 5.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 7% · Cowboys 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Packers · Cowboys

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