luckadjusted

Week 5 2019 · October 6, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Saints, Week 5 2019: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Buccaneers 31–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 9 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.6 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Saints were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:13 left): the Saints were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 15 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
New Orleans Saints 31

October 6, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −3

Luck index +15 Saints about even · −15 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 1, Saints win 9.

  1. 1 TB 30 NO 23
  2. 2 TB 23 NO 25
  3. 3 TB 27 NO 32
  4. 4 TB 31 NO 38
  5. 5 TB 10 NO 21
  6. 6 TB 13 NO 27
  7. 7 TB 20 NO 37
  8. 8 TB 0 NO 20
  9. 9 TB 14 NO 38
  10. 10 TB 10 NO 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 15% of them, Saints 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+1.3%
Buccaneers by 9–163.5%
Buccaneers by 1–89.0%
Level after regulation1.5%
Saints by 1–819.9%
Saints by 9–1622.9%
Saints by 17+41.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 11.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 42 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:50 The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% NO NO: Field goal
2 Q1 1:13 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +15% TB NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:35 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:07 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% TB TB: Field goal
5 Q3 11:50 Defensive Holding on the Saints (A.J. Klein), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 279 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +8% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q3 8:18 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q3 5:06 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:55 The Saints converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drew Brees (NO QB), out, replaced by t.bridgewater · 0.7 pts
  • Trey Hendrickson (NO DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Breshad Perriman (TB WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 4% · Saints 96%

Final margin
Saints by 7
Luck in points
4.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 11.7
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 15% · Saints 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2019 games · Buccaneers · Saints

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